Magic Eden/Bitcoin Market Overview

Summary
• MEBTC traded in a tightening range before surging past 4.01e-06 and reaching a 24-hour high of 4.23e-06.
• Momentum picked up in the final 6 hours with strong volume and price confirmation.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions, raising the risk of short-term correction.

Opening at 3.83e-06 on 2025-11-06 12:00 ET, Magic Eden/Bitcoin (MEBTC) traded as low as 3.83e-06 and reached a high of 4.23e-06 before closing at 4.23e-06 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-07. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 12,172.89, with turnover amounting to approximately $51.02 (assuming a notional value of Bitcoin). The price action shows a strong shift in sentiment from consolidation to aggressive bullish momentum in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

A notable breakout occurred between 14:45 and 17:00 ET, with a bullish engulfing pattern confirming the upward shift. The 3.95e-06 level acted as a key support that was tested and held multiple times before the price surged past it. The 4.01e-06 and 4.11e-06 levels appear to be minor resistances, now broken but likely to become retests.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed to the upside during the 16:30–17:00 ET window, supporting the bullish bias. On a daily scale, longer-term averages (50/200) remain neutral to slightly bearish, suggesting caution about the sustainability of the breakout beyond a short-term rally.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line mid-day, confirming the bullish momentum. RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) after the 4.11e-06 level was cleared, suggesting a possible pause or pullback in the near term. The divergence between price and RSI could hint at a slowdown in buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the breakout, with price closing near the upper band. The previous range-bound consolidation saw price hovering around the mid-band, indicating a shift in volatility dynamics. A reversal or consolidation phase could follow as the upper band becomes a key resistance.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout, with a large 846.61-unit trade at 15:00 ET propelling the price to 4.06e-06. Subsequent volume remained strong but not as pronounced, suggesting continuation but with potential exhaustion. Turnover matched the price rise, showing no significant divergence between volume and price.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 3.83e-06 to 4.23e-06 move, the 61.8% retracement level sits at ~3.98e-06, already tested and exceeded. The 78.6% level (~4.14e-06) now becomes a critical psychological and retracement target. A break above 4.23e-06 would open the door to further bullish projections.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy under analysis seeks to validate the predictive power of the Bullish-Engulfing candlestick pattern. In this case, the pattern was identified on the 15-minute chart of MEBTC, where it confirmed the breakout at 4.01e-06. A backtest would evaluate the effectiveness of a strategy that enters long on the close of the engulfing pattern and exits after a fixed holding period (e.g., N days or when a trailing stop is triggered). However, due to a lack of event data from earlier periods, the backtest could not be completed. Extending the historical period or adjusting the pattern criteria (e.g., including near-engulfing) may help populate the event dataset for future analysis.