Magic Eden/Bitcoin Market Overview

Summary
• MEBTC formed bearish engulfing patterns and retested 3.73e-06 support with mixed volume confirmation.
• Price closed below 20-period MA, suggesting short-term bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded as price swung between 3.73e-06 and 3.95e-06, with RSI hovering near midline.

Magic Eden/Bitcoin (MEBTC) opened at 3.9e-06 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.81e-06 by 12:00 ET the following day. The price ranged between a high of 3.95e-06 and a low of 3.73e-06 over the 24-hour window, with a total traded volume of 20,964.52 and a notional turnover of approximately $80.50.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish engulfing pattern during the 18:30–18:45 ET candle as it opened at 3.94e-06 and closed at 3.87e-06, confirming bearish sentiment. A strong support level emerged at 3.73e-06, where price found a floor on several occasions. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 3.73e-06 to 3.95e-06 swing placed resistance at around 3.86e-06, which held during key testing periods.

Moving Averages & Momentum Indicators

The 20-period moving average (20SMA) crossed below the 50-period moving average (50SMA) on 15-minute data, suggesting short-term bearish momentum. RSI remained near 50, indicating indecision, while the MACD histogram showed bearish divergence as the price formed higher highs but the MACD formed lower highs.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly, with the upper band reaching 3.95e-06 and the lower band hitting 3.73e-06. Price spent time near the upper and lower boundaries, indicating heightened uncertainty. A contraction in band width is unlikely in the next 24 hours unless a clear directional bias emerges.

Volume & Turnover

Notable volume spikes occurred during the 18:30–18:45 ET and 22:00–22:15 ET periods, with turnover surging during large downward moves. However, volume failed to confirm a strong bearish breakout below 3.73e-06, as the move from 3.82e-06 to 3.77e-06 was accompanied by only moderate volume.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a short position on the confirmation of a bearish engulfing pattern and exiting at the next candle’s close. Given the bearish engulfing pattern observed at 18:30–18:45 ET, this could serve as a candidate signal. For practical execution, the signal would require confirmation of a close below the engulfing body, followed by an exit at the next 15-minute candle's close. If applied to a basket of similar tickers, a rolling window approach could identify recurring signals and validate strategy robustness from 2022–2025.