Madrigal Soars Over 11% Amid Landmark Patent Win—What’s Next?

• Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) surges 11.4% to $346.68, nearing its 52-week high of $377.46
• FDA approves Rezdiffra’s Orange Book listing with patent protection through 2044
• Volume spikes to 1.096M shares, 5.46% turnover as institutional buying intensifies
• Price breaches 30-day resistance at $283.05, hitting intraday highs near $358

Today’s meteoric rise marks a pivotal inflection for MDGL, as Wall Street reacts to its patent victory securing Rezdiffra’s dominance in the NASH treatment space. With the stock trading 11.4% higher and nearing its all-time peak, traders are pricing in long-term exclusivity for this first-in-class therapy. The FDA’s Orange Book listing and 20-year patent protection through 2044 have erased generic competition fears, fueling a technical breakout that could redefine this biotech’s valuation trajectory.

FDA Patent Milestone Ignites 13% Surge
Madrigal’s explosive move stems directly from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office’s Notice of Allowance for Rezdiffra’s weight-based dosing regimen. This patent, set to issue by September 2044, secures Madrigal’s exclusive rights to the FDA-approved protocol, eliminating generic threats for over two decades. The inclusion in the FDA’s Orange Book further solidifies Rezdiffra’s status as the sole approved therapy for noncirrhotic MASH with moderate-to-advanced fibrosis—a $20B+ market with high unmet need. CEO Bill Sibold’s emphasis on this as a “pivotal milestone” resonated with investors, erasing lingering patent litigation concerns and validating Madrigal’s leadership in a niche but critical therapeutic area.

Technical Bull Run Meets Strategic Option Play: How to Ride MDGL’s Momentum
• MACD: 6.54 (Bullish above signal line 4.01)
• RSI: 64.77 (Neutral buy zone)
• Bollinger Bands: Above upper band ($322.40), signaling extreme short-term strength
• 30-Day MA: $292.19 (Current price +20% above)
• Key Resistance: $352 (today’s high) and 52-week high $377.46

Aggressive bulls should target the $360 call option (MDGL20251017C360) despite the empty chain—this theoretical leveraged play offers 24.52% leverage at $351.10 with a 2.5:1 reward/risk ratio to $365. Technical buyers should focus on price action: a close above $352 invalidates near-term resistance, opening a path to $377. Traders must monitor $327 support (today’s open) as the critical floor—failure here risks a 10% retracement. For now, this is a buy-the-dip story with institutional backing—hold positions above $327 and target the $377 ceiling.

Action Hook: “Bulls targeting $377 should initiate MDGL20251017C360 at $351—this call offers 2.5x leverage into the next resistance level.”

Backtest Madrigal Stock Performance
The 11% intraday surge in MDGL has historically led to mixed short-to-medium-term performance. While the 3-day win rate is 46.35%, the 10-day win rate is 47.88%, and the 30-day win rate is 49.75%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of such a surge, the returns are generally modest, with a maximum return of only 0.50% over a 30-day period. This suggests that while MDGL may experience a brief bounce following a significant intraday gain, it is unlikely to lead to sustained high returns.

Hold the Line at $327—Madrigal’s Patent-Fueled Rally Faces Key Resistance
Madrigal’s 11% surge is no flash in the pan—this patent victory secures its position as the NASH market’s sole game-changer for over two decades. While sector leader Pfizer (PFE) languishes with a 0.22% gain, MDGL’s trajectory hinges on sustaining momentum above $327 (today’s open) and critical support at $283 (30-day MA). Traders should monitor the $350-$352 zone for pullbacks but expect a breakout above $377 to trigger a multiyear leg higher. The key watch: FDA Orange Book listing finalization and Rezdiffra’s Phase 3 cirrhosis trial results. For now, this is a buy-the-dip story—hold above $327 and target the $377 ceiling. Do not fade this rally until resistance holds.