Macroeconomic Tug-of-War Constrains Bitcoin’s Bull Run Despite Risk-On Rally
Bitcoin’s price has remained capped below $110,000 despite recent gains in gold and equities, sparking renewed debate over the factors constraining its upward momentum. Analysts point to macroeconomic dynamics, including global liquidity trends, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, and geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China as key influencers. Raoul Pal, co-founder of Real Vision and a leading macro strategist, argues that the current bull cycle for BitcoinBTC-- is structurally different from previous ones, with liquidity-driven forces extending the timeline for a potential peak into 2026[1].
Pal’s analysis hinges on the interplay between global liquidity and the ISM index, which measures U.S. manufacturing activity. He notes that Bitcoin’s performance has historically aligned closely with the ISM, with both assets moving in tandem during economic expansions. However, the ISM remains below the 50 threshold—the level indicating economic contraction—limiting Bitcoin’s upside. Pal attributes this to an extended business cycle, where debt maturity periods have stretched from four to five years, delaying the peak in liquidity and risk appetite[2]. This shift, he argues, contrasts with the 2020–2021 cycle, where liquidity and the ISM peaked simultaneously, truncating the bull run[1].
Liquidity dynamics further complicate the picture. The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) has seen a sharp rebuild, draining approximately $500 billion in liquidity since mid-July[1]. This exogenous liquidity drain has disproportionately impacted risk assets, including Bitcoin, which relies heavily on macroeconomic tailwinds. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has injected $33 billion into global markets, partially offsetting U.S. liquidity tightening. These divergent monetary policies create a mixed environment for crypto, with institutional investors navigating the tension between U.S. rate hikes and China’s cautious easing.
The U.S.-China trade relationship also plays a critical role. Recent tensions, including reinstated tariffs by the U.S. and stalled negotiations, have triggered a 3–8% correction in altcoins and a 3.9% pullback in Bitcoin from its all-time high. Institutional investors, however, remain bullish. Large Bitcoin holders (addresses holding 1,000–10,000 BTC) have increased their holdings, signaling confidence despite macroeconomic uncertainty. Retail participation, meanwhile, remains subdued, with under 20% of Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) held by short-term investors—a far cry from the 50% levels seen near previous market tops.
Bitcoin’s correlation with equities has also deepened. The CME Group notes that Bitcoin’s relationship with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 has shifted from neutral to a 0.5 positive correlation since 2020[6]. This alignment reflects growing institutional adoption and portfolio integration, with Bitcoin increasingly viewed as a beta extension of equity risk rather than a standalone diversifier. As global liquidity and the ISM index continue to trend upward, analysts like Pal predict Bitcoin could breach $300,000 if favorable conditions persist[4]. However, such projections depend on the ISM reaching its peak between 56 and 65, a scenario still months away[4].
The path forward remains uncertain. While liquidity injections and a weaker U.S. dollar support crypto, geopolitical risks and TGA liquidity drains could prolong volatility. Pal emphasizes the importance of patience, advising investors to avoid leverage and align time horizons with macroeconomic cycles[4]. With the U.S. Federal Reserve facing a $9 trillion debt refinancing window over the next 12 months, the interplay between monetary policy and crypto liquidity will likely dictate Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming year[1].
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