Lyondellbasell Industries Outlook - A Bearish Technical Profile Despite Strong Cash Flow

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Lyondellbasell Industries (LYB) is currently trending downward (-2.84%) with mixed analyst ratings and a weak technical outlook. The overall trend is bearish, with more bearish indicators (5) than bullish ones (2).

News Highlights

• China factory activity slightly improved in May with a PMI of 49.5, but still below the growth threshold. This may indirectly impact LYB's chemical exports to the region.
• REX Shares plans Ethereum and Solana ETFs that may reshape crypto market dynamics. While not directly tied to LYB, a broader market rally could indirectly support energy and materials stocks.
• Trump’s tariff announcements in May continue to create uncertainty. As a global chemical company, LYB may face rising costs or disrupted trade flows, especially if tariffs on raw materials increase.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average Rating Score: 2.83 (simple mean).

Weighted Rating Score: 1.94 (performance-weighted).

Rating Consistency: There are differences among analysts, with most leaning toward neutral or underperform ratings. Only one firm issued a “Buy” rating.

The ratings align with the current price trend (down -2.84%), reflecting a generally pessimistic market outlook. Below are key fundamental factors:

• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate): -118.67% (very weak). Internal diagnostic score: 0.00.
• Quick ratio: 104.23% (solid). Internal diagnostic score: 1.00.
• Total profit / EBIT: 61.93% (good). Internal diagnostic score: 1.56.
• Cash-MV: -26.31% (negative). Internal diagnostic score: 2.00.
• Current ratio: 177.39% (healthy). Internal diagnostic score: 4.17.
• Cost of sales ratio: 91.29% (high). Internal diagnostic score: 0.00.

While the company has strong liquidity and operating margins, weak cash flow growth and high cost of sales are dragging down the fundamental outlook.

Money-Flow Trends

Fund flows for LYB are mixed. While large and extra-large investors are showing a negative trend, with inflow ratios of 49.69% and 48.41% respectively, medium and small investors are still showing positive trends. The overall inflow ratio is 49.16%, suggesting a slight outflow from institutional players.

This divergence between big-money and retail flows may indicate a tug-of-war in sentiment: long-term holders are cautious, while retail investors see short-term value or are buying on dips.

Key Technical Signals

Lyondellbasell Industries is currently showing a weak technical profile. The internal diagnostic score is 3.1, with more bearish indicators (5) than bullish ones (2).

• WR Oversold (recently on 2025-09-15): Score 1.17 (bearish). Indicates oversold conditions with historically poor returns.
• MACD Death Cross (2025-09-15): Score 7.56 (bullish). Historically has been a positive signal with 66.67% win rate.
• Long Lower Shadow (2025-09-08): Score 7.85 (bullish). A strong reversal pattern with a 100% win rate in its short history.

These mixed signals suggest a volatile market. While some patterns signal short-term strength, the broader trend remains bearish. The key insight is that momentum is unclear, with a strong dominance of bearish indicators.

Conclusion

Lyondellbasell Industries faces a challenging near-term outlook with a technical score of 3.1 and a weak price trend (-2.84%). While cash flow and liquidity remain strong, bearish indicators and fund outflows are concerning. Investors should consider waiting for a pull-back or clearer momentum, and keep an eye on earnings and macroeconomic events like Trump's upcoming policy shifts. For now, the stock appears more suited for cautious investors than aggressive buyers.