Is Lyft (LYFT) a Buy in 2025 Amid Diverging Analyst Price Targets and Mixed Earnings Forecasts?

The question of whether Lyft (LYFT) is a buy in 2025 hinges on a delicate balance: reconciling the company's long-term strategic ambitions with the short-term turbulence of its stock price and earnings performance. While Wall Street analysts remain divided on LYFT's valuation—offering price targets ranging from $10.50 to $28.00—the company's recent operational outperformance and bold partnerships suggest a narrative of resilience. But can these factors offset the skepticism reflected in a “Hold” consensus and a 0.7% post-earnings dip?

Earnings Outperformance: A Mixed Bag of Signals

Lyft's Q2 2025 earnings report revealed a company navigating a complex landscape. While GAAP revenue of $1.60 billion fell short of estimates by 0.68%, the 10.6% year-over-year growth and record $129.4 million in adjusted EBITDA (up 25.7% YoY) underscored operational strength. The 2.9% EBITDA margin improvement and 14% ride growth to 234.8 million rides highlighted Lyft's ability to scale efficiently.

However, the stock's 0.7% decline post-earnings signaled investor unease. The 7.4% EPS miss and 1.5% revenue shortfall, though modest in absolute terms, amplified concerns about Lyft's ability to sustain growth in a competitive market. reveals a volatile trajectory, with the stock oscillating between $13.41 and $16.02 before settling at $16.02 on August 17—a 6.1% rebound from its post-earnings low. This volatility reflects the market's tug-of-war between optimism over long-term metrics and skepticism about near-term execution.

Strategic Partnerships: The Long Game

Lyft's recent moves—acquiring Freenow, partnering with Baidu on autonomous vehicles, and teaming up with United Airlines—position the company as a multi-faceted player. The Freenow acquisition, for instance, expands Lyft's footprint in Europe's taxi market, a sector ripe for digital disruption. Meanwhile, the Baidu collaboration taps into China's AV ecosystem, a critical battleground for future mobility. These partnerships, though not immediately revenue-driving, signal Lyft's ambition to transcend its core U.S. ridesharing model.

The United Airlines partnership, meanwhile, targets the lucrative business travel segment, a market where competitors like Uber have yet to make significant inroads. Such initiatives could diversify Lyft's revenue streams and insulate it from pricing pressures in its core markets.

Analyst Divergence: A Double-Edged Sword

The 32 Wall Street analysts covering LYFT have issued a fragmented consensus: 22 “Hold” ratings, 9 “Buy” ratings, and 1 “Sell.” The average price target of $16.70 implies a 4.22% upside from the current $16.02 stock price, but the wide range ($10.50–$28.00) reflects deep uncertainty. Optimists cite Lyft's 28.5% free cash flow growth and disciplined cost management, while skeptics highlight the 10.6% revenue growth as insufficient to justify a $5.64 billion market cap.

reveals a modest premium, suggesting analysts are cautiously optimistic about the company's ability to execute its long-term vision. The 2 analyst upgrades in the past 90 days further indicate a gradual shift toward confidence, albeit not yet a consensus.

The Bull Case: Justifying the 7.02% Upside

For bulls, the 7.02% average upside is not just a number—it's a reflection of Lyft's structural advantages. The company's 12% gross bookings growth ($4.5 billion) and 10.6% revenue increase demonstrate its ability to capture market share, even in lower-priced regions like Canada. Moreover, the $200 million in share repurchases during Q2 signal management's belief in the stock's intrinsic value.

Lyft's strategic bets—AVs, international expansion, and business travel—also offer high-margin growth avenues. Autonomous vehicles, in particular, could revolutionize Lyft's cost structure, reducing reliance on driver commissions. While these initiatives are years from materializing, they justify a forward-looking valuation.

The Bear Case: Short-Term Risks and Valuation Concerns

Cautious investors, however, point to near-term headwinds. The 1.5% revenue miss and 4.2% post-earnings stock drop highlight the fragility of Lyft's momentum. Insurance costs, a persistent drag on profitability, remain a wildcard. Additionally, the company's 0.2% operating margin, while an improvement from -1.9% in 2024, still lags behind peers like Uber, which has achieved breakeven margins.

The fragmented analyst consensus also raises questions about LYFT's ability to meet expectations. With 9 “Buy” ratings but only 1 “Sell,” the market is not entirely bearish—but the lack of a strong “Outperform” signal suggests lingering doubts.

Investment Thesis: A Calculated Bet

Is LYFT a buy in 2025? The answer depends on one's time horizon. For long-term investors, the company's strategic partnerships, operational improvements, and AV ambitions justify a bullish stance. The 7.02% average upside, while modest, is a floor, not a ceiling, if Lyft executes on its roadmap.

However, short-term volatility remains a risk. Investors should monitor key catalysts: the integration of Freenow, progress on AV pilots, and the monetization of business travel partnerships. A disciplined approach—buying dips in the $13–$14 range while avoiding overexposure during rallies—could balance growth potential with risk mitigation.

In the end, Lyft's story is one of transformation. Whether it becomes a compelling buy in 2025 will depend not just on its ability to meet earnings forecasts, but on its capacity to redefine the future of mobility.