Lucid Group's (LCID) 35.8% Surge: A Volatile Rebound Amid Reverse Split and Robotaxi Hype?

Summary
• Lucid Group (LCID) surges 35.8% to $3.11, defying a 52-week low of $1.93 and a -3.25 P/E ratio.
• Uber’s $300M investment and robotaxi partnership with Lucid sparks 45% trading frenzy.
• Reverse stock split proposal filed with SEC aims to boost investor appeal.
• Turnover hits 87.5M shares (73.25% rate) amid short-term bullish trend.
Lucid Group’s stock is on a wild ride, surging 35.8% intraday amid a historic partnership with Uber for robotaxi deployment and a proposed reverse stock split. The $3.11 price—up from a $2.29 open—reflects renewed speculative fervor, though the stock remains 30% below its 52-week high of $4.43. With turnover exceeding 87 million shares and a leveraged ETF (LCDL) up 69.68%, the market is betting big on near-term volatility.

Uber Partnership and Reverse Split Fuel Lucid's 35.8% Surge
Lucid Group’s meteoric 35.8% gain stems from two catalytic announcements: a six-year robotaxi partnership with Uber, including a $300M equity investment, and a proposed 1:10 reverse stock split. The Uber deal positions Lucid as a key player in the autonomous vehicle revolution, with 20,000 Lucid Gravity SUVs slated for robotaxi deployment. Meanwhile, the reverse split aims to elevate the stock’s per-share price and attract institutional investors. Both moves signal a strategic pivot to stabilize liquidity and investor sentiment, though execution risks remain.

EV Sector Volatility: Lucid Outpaces Tesla Amid Robotaxi Hype
While Lucid Group’s stock soars, Tesla (TSLA)—the sector’s dominant player—trades down 0.89%, reflecting divergent investor sentiment. Lucid’s partnership with Uber taps into the $30B robotaxi market, contrasting Tesla’s recent focus on self-driving hardware over vehicle sales. Meanwhile, the broader EV sector grapples with regulatory headwinds and production bottlenecks. Lucid’s short-term outperformance highlights its speculative allure, but its path to profitability remains unproven compared to Tesla’s established scale.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Contracts and ETFs for Aggressive Bulls
• GraniteShares 2x Long LCID Daily ETF (LCDL): 69.68% intraday surge mirrors LCID’s volatility, ideal for leveraged exposure.
• RSI: 59.04 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 0.0037 (bullish), Signal Line: -0.026 (bearish)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $3.11 (above upper band $2.3759), suggesting overbought conditions.
• 200D MA: $2.5527 (below current price), indicating short-term momentum.
Key levels to watch: $3.37 (intraday high), $2.83 (low), and $2.55 (200D MA). A break above $3.37 could trigger further euphoria, while a drop below $2.83 would test bearish sentiment. The leveraged ETF LCDL (up 69.68%) amplifies this volatility for aggressive traders.
Top Option 1: LCID20250815C3
• Code: LCID20250815C3
• Type: Call
• Strike: $3
• Expiry: 2025-08-15
• IV: 124.81% (high)
• Leverage Ratio: 6.33%
• Delta: 0.6106 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.009176 (rapid decay)
• Gamma: 0.3458 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: $1.51M
Payoff: At 5% upside ($3.27), intrinsic value = $0.27 per share. With 33,582 contracts traded, this call offers high gamma and liquidity for short-term volatility plays.
Top Option 2: LCID20250822C3
• Code: LCID20250822C3
• Type: Call
• Strike: $3
• Expiry: 2025-08-22
• IV: 125.30% (high)
• Leverage Ratio: 5.74%
• Delta: 0.6152 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.008035 (rapid decay)
• Gamma: 0.3090 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: $232K
Payoff: At 5% upside ($3.27), intrinsic value = $0.27 per share. Despite lower turnover, its high gamma and moderate delta make it a viable play for bullish momentum.
Hook: Aggressive bulls should prioritize LCID20250815C3 if the $3.37 intraday high is retested. A close above $3.37 would validate the 1:10 reverse split’s market impact, making this call a high-gamma leveraged bet.

Backtest Lucid Group Stock Performance
The backtest of LCID's performance following a 36% intraday increase reveals a significant downturn. The strategy resulted in an 91.68% loss, with a Sharpe ratio of -0.55 and a maximum drawdown of 0.00%, indicating it failed to capitalize on the gain and faced extreme volatility.

Lucid's High-Risk, High-Reward Play: Capitalize on Short-Term Volatility
Lucid Group’s 35.8% surge is a high-stakes gamble, driven by speculative optimism around its robotaxi partnership and reverse split. While the stock’s short-term bullish trend aligns with elevated RSI and overbought Bollinger Bands, long-term fundamentals remain weak (P/E of -3.25). Investors should prioritize liquidity and leverage via the LCID20250815C3 call or the LCDL ETF, but brace for volatility. Watch Tesla’s -0.89% move as a barometer for broader EV sector sentiment. Action: Buy LCID20250815C3 if the $3.37 level holds; exit if the 200D MA ($2.55) breaks.