Loonie Set for Downturn as Traders Bet on More Losses

The Canadian dollar, affectionately known as the "loonie," is facing a potential downturn as traders anticipate further losses in the coming months. Experts have identified several factors contributing to this trend, including the incoming U.S. President Donald Trump's policy proposals, the outperforming U.S. economy, and interest rate differentials between Canada and the United States.



One of the primary concerns is the uncertainty stemming from Trump's policy proposals, which are expected to weigh on business investment and consumer confidence. This uncertainty is likely to result in a weaker loonie in the short term, according to experts like Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay. Additionally, the outperforming U.S. economy is pushing U.S. yields higher, attracting more investments south of the border and making the Canadian dollar less attractive to global investors.

Interest rate differentials also play a significant role in the loonie's potential downturn. The Bank of Canada has cut its benchmark interest rate more aggressively than the U.S. Federal Reserve, leading to a widening interest rate differential. This divergence is putting downward pressure on the Canadian dollar, as it reduces the appeal of Canadian assets to overseas investors. Traders are increasingly selling CAD and buying USD, causing the loonie to depreciate against the U.S. dollar.



Furthermore, Trump's tariff threats are putting downward pressure on the loonie, as traders are in a "sell-first-and-ask-questions-later mode." With 75% of Canada's exports destined for the U.S., the implementation of such tariffs could further weaken the loonie. However, some experts believe that the impact of tariffs on the loonie may be short-lived, as the risk should wane gradually as more clarity around the trade policies of the upcoming U.S. administration is obtained.

In conclusion, the loonie is set for a potential downturn as traders bet on more losses in the coming months. The combination of uncertainty stemming from Trump's policy proposals, the outperforming U.S. economy, interest rate differentials, and tariff threats is putting downward pressure on the Canadian dollar. Traders should stay informed about these factors and adjust their positions accordingly to capitalize on potential opportunities and mitigate risks in the foreign exchange market.