loanDepot (LDI) Surges 18.7% Intraday: Trump's Mortgage Plan Ignites Real Estate Sector Rally

Summary
• loanDepot (LDI) jumps 18.7% to $3.17, trading near 52-week high of $5.05
• White House unveils 401(k) down payment policy, sparking mortgage sector optimism
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) surges 7.5% as housing demand speculation intensifies

loanDepot’s intraday 18.7% rally has ignited a sector-wide surge in mortgage finance stocks, driven by the Trump administration’s announcement allowing 401(k) funds for home down payments. With the stock trading at $3.17—its highest level since November 2025—the move reflects renewed investor confidence in housing market liquidity. The broader real estate sector is amplifying this momentum, with peers like Rocket Lab (RKLB) also posting double-digit gains.

Trump's 401(k) Down Payment Plan Sparks Mortgage Sector Surge
The Trump administration’s policy shift, announced via White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett on Fox Business, has directly fueled loanDepot’s rally. By permitting 401(k) funds to be used for home down payments, the policy expands access to mortgage capital, particularly for first-time buyers. This aligns with loanDepot’s core business model of digitizing mortgage origination and servicing. The stock’s 18.7% jump follows immediate market speculation that increased demand for mortgage services will boost loanDepot’s transaction volume and revenue. Institutional inflows, including UBS and Squarepoint’s recent stake increases, further validate the sector’s short-term optimism.

Mortgage Finance Sector Rally: loanDepot Leads as Trump Policy Boosts Housing Demand
loanDepot’s 18.7% surge outpaces its peers but aligns with broader sector momentum. Rocket Lab (RKLB), a key player in space technology, also rose 7.5% on the same day, reflecting cross-sector optimism about Trump’s economic agenda. While RKLB’s gains stem from defense contract speculation, the mortgage finance segment’s rally is directly tied to housing policy. loanDepot’s market cap now stands at $1.1 billion, a 38% increase from its $800 million valuation on January 12, as institutional investors like UBS and Squarepoint boost holdings. The sector’s synchronized movement underscores the policy-driven nature of the rally.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls on loanDepot Amid Sector Momentum
• RSI: 69.47 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.036 (bullish), Signal Line: -0.039
• Bollinger Bands: $2.86 (upper), $1.81 (lower)
• 200-day MA: $2.13 (below current price)

loanDepot’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with RSI near overbought territory and MACD crossing above the signal line. The stock is trading above its 200-day moving average, indicating short-term strength. For options traders, two contracts stand out:

• LDI20260123C3 (Call, $3 strike, Jan 23 expiry):
- IV: 122.74% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.665 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.022 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.630 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 91,348 (liquid)
- Leverage: 9.65%
This call option offers aggressive upside potential if the stock closes above $3 by January 23. A 5% price move to $3.33 would yield a 450% return, assuming max(0, ST - K) payoff.

• LDI20260130C3.5 (Call, $3.5 strike, Jan 30 expiry):
- IV: 30.00% (moderate volatility)
- Delta: 0.068 (low sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.001 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.677 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 5,188 (liquid)
- Leverage: 15.92%
This contract is ideal for a longer-term play, with high gamma amplifying gains if the stock breaks above $3.50. A 5% move to $3.33 would result in a 300% return.

Aggressive bulls should target LDI20260123C3 into a close above $3.00, while conservative traders may scale into LDI20260130C3.5 for extended exposure.

Backtest loanDepot Stock Performance
The performance of the Long Duration Issuer (LDI) index following a 19% intraday increase from 2022 to the present has been generally positive, though modest. The backtest shows a 3-day win rate of 46.26%, a 10-day win rate of 49.43%, and a 30-day win rate of 49.66%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest period was 4.97%, which occurred on day 55, suggesting that while the returns were generally moderate, there were opportunities for greater gains within the backtest period.

loanDepot's Trump-Driven Rally: Secure Gains or Ride the Wave?
loanDepot’s 18.7% surge is a direct response to Trump’s 401(k) down payment policy, which has reinvigorated the mortgage finance sector. While RSI near overbought levels suggests caution, the stock’s break above its 200-day MA and institutional backing indicate momentum is intact. Investors should monitor the $2.86 upper Bollinger Band as a near-term resistance. Rocket Lab (RKLB)’s 7.5% gain highlights the broader economic optimism, but loanDepot remains the sector’s most direct play. Aggressive traders should target a $3.00 close for LDI20260123C3, while hedging against a pullback to the $2.39 support level.