Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) Market Overview – 2025-09-15

• LPTJPY opened at 1033.9 and closed at 989.8 after a volatile session with a high of 1049.0 and low of 990.5.
• Momentum shifted sharply lower after a morning rally, with RSI signaling potential oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded during the 15–23 ET window, with a 5.3% drop in turnover after 8:15 ET.
• Price tested key Fibonacci levels at 1038.9 and 997.3, with bearish divergences visible.
• Bollinger Bands widened in early hours, narrowing toward the close with price near the lower band.

Livepeer/Yen (LPTJPY) opened at 1033.9 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET and closed at 989.8 at 12:00 ET the following day. The pair reached an intraday high of 1049.0 and a low of 990.5, trading across a 5.6% range. Total notional volume amounted to 5,453.67, and turnover reached 5,650,393.95 Yen.

Structure & Formations

Price action developed a strong bearish bias after the 1049.0 high, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming at that level. A key resistance line around 1042.1 was decisively broken, and price failed to retake 1038.9, which acted as a prior support-turned-resistance. A significant 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1038.9 was tested multiple times, with bearish continuation evident after each touch. A key support level at 997.3 was then tested, and the price closed near 989.8, below it, suggesting a potential continuation of the decline.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA were in a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward bias. The 50-period line sat above the 100-period and 200-period lines on the daily chart, confirming a bearish trend over the past 50 sessions. Price closed below all key moving averages, especially the 50-period MA at ~1037.8, indicating a continuation of bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line moved below the signal line and remained in negative territory throughout the session, with the histogram showing a consistent bearish divergence. RSI dipped below 30 in the final hours, indicating oversold conditions but without a corresponding rebound in price. The absence of a bounce suggests a strong bearish momentum could persist, despite short-term oversold signals.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the early hours, reflecting increased volatility, and narrowed during the session’s last 6–8 hours, signaling a potential consolidation phase. Price spent much of the session near the lower band, especially during the 9–12 ET window, and closed just above the band's lower boundary, suggesting bearish exhaustion could still be limited.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key bearish moves: the initial break below 1042.1 (632.78 volume) and the final leg down from 1005.4 to 989.8 (656.63 volume). Turnover, however, dropped sharply after 8:15 ET, despite continued price declines, suggesting reduced conviction from major participants. A bearish divergence between volume and price could emerge if price continues lower with lower turnover, pointing to a possible exhaustion phase or consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracement levels were tested and respected: the 1049.0 high saw a 50% retrace to 1038.9 and a 61.8% retrace to 1026.1. Price held near the 38.2% level at 1036.0 before breaking below 997.3, a key Fibonacci level that coincided with a prior support. The 100% extension level for the current move is at 986.6, near the close, indicating a potential bearish target for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish bias, a potential backtesting strategy could be to initiate a short position on a break below 989.8 with a stop above the 1000.0 psychological level and a target at 986.6 (100% extension). A trailing stop could be added once price reaches 985.0 to lock in profits. This approach assumes continuation of the bearish momentum and a lack of immediate buying interest to reverse the trend. The strategy would aim to capitalize on Fibonacci-driven levels and divergences in RSI and MACD.