Lithium Argentina Surges 14.6% on Record Production and Expansion Hype: Is This the Start of a Bull Run?

Summary
• Lithium Argentina (LAR) surges 14.6% intraday, hitting $7.02, its 52-week high.
• Company reports 2025 production of 34,100 tonnes of lithium carbonate, exceeding guidance.
• Stage 2 RIGI application submitted for 45,000 tpa expansion, signaling aggressive growth.

Today’s explosive move in Lithium Argentina’s stock is driven by a trifecta of catalysts: record production, cost efficiency, and strategic expansion plans. The stock’s 14.6% surge reflects investor optimism about the company’s operational maturity and its ability to scale production in Argentina’s lithium triangle. With intraday trading between $6.295 and $7.02, the stock has captured attention as a potential breakout play in the critical minerals sector.

Operational Excellence and Expansion Fuel LAR's Surge
Lithium Argentina’s record 2025 production of 34,100 tonnes of lithium carbonate—capped by a 9,700-tonne Q4 output at 97% nameplate capacity—has ignited investor enthusiasm. The company’s cash operating costs fell below $6,000 per tonne in Q4, a 4.5% improvement from Q3, while liquidity surged to $150 million. Simultaneously, the submission of Stage 2 RIGI applications for a 45,000 tpa expansion and the PPG project’s permitting progress have positioned LAR as a high-growth lithium producer. These developments, coupled with leadership upgrades (Alec Meikle as President), signal disciplined execution and strategic clarity, fueling the stock’s sharp rally.

Lithium Sector Rally: LAR Outpaces ALB as Expansion Optimism Spreads
The lithium sector is in a bullish phase, with Albemarle (ALB) up 9.9% on the day. However, LAR’s 14.6% surge outpaces even sector leaders, reflecting its unique positioning in Argentina’s lithium triangle and aggressive expansion plans. ETFs like iShares Lithium Miners (ILIT, +5.9%) and VanEck Rare Earth (REMX, +6.1%) also gained traction, underscoring broad-based demand for critical minerals. LAR’s operational execution and cost discipline differentiate it from peers, making it a standout in a sector grappling with supply constraints and geopolitical risks.

Capitalizing on LAR’s Momentum: ETFs and Options Playbook
• MACD: 0.250 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.197, Histogram: 0.053 (positive divergence)
• RSI: 66.7 (neutral to overbought)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $6.98 (above upper band of $6.0995)
• 200D MA: $3.256 (far below current price)

LAR’s technicals suggest a strong short-term bullish trend. Key support is at $5.36 (20-day MA), while resistance lies at $7.02 (52-week high). The iShares Lithium Miners ETF (ILIT) and VanEck Rare Earth ETF (REMX) offer leveraged exposure to the sector’s momentum. For options, two contracts stand out:

1. LAR20260116C7.5
• Code: LAR20260116C7.5
• Type: Call
• Strike: $7.50
• Expiration: Jan 16, 2026
• IV Ratio: 100.59% (high volatility)
• Leverage: 23.37% (moderate)
• Delta: 0.385 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.030 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.312 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: $15,676
This call option is ideal for aggressive bulls betting on a short-term breakout above $7.50. The high gamma and moderate delta suggest it could amplify gains if LAR continues its upward trajectory.

2. LAR20260220C7.5
• Code: LAR20260220C7.5
• Type: Call
• Strike: $7.50
• Expiration: Feb 20, 2026
• IV Ratio: 94.01% (moderate)
• Leverage: 9.35% (low)
• Delta: 0.492 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.013 (slow decay)
• Gamma: 0.170 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: $86,669
This longer-dated call offers a balance of liquidity and time decay. Its high delta and moderate gamma make it a safer play for holding through potential volatility in Q1 2026.

Payoff Estimation: At a 5% upside (targeting $7.33), LAR20260116C7.5 would yield a 328.57% return, while LAR20260220C7.5 would see a 133.33% gain. Aggressive bulls should prioritize the Jan 16 call for a quick move; those seeking patience should opt for the Feb 20 contract.

Backtest Lithium Argentina Stock Performance
The backtest of LAR's performance after a 15% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 55.56%, the 10-Day win rate is 51.85%, and the 30-Day win rate is 65.74%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 30.71% over 30 days, suggesting that LAR can deliver significant gains even after the initial surge.

LAR’s Breakout: A High-Velocity Play on Lithium Demand
Lithium Argentina’s 14.6% surge is a testament to its operational execution and expansion ambitions. With Stage 2 RIGI applications submitted and PPG permitting in motion, the company is poised to capitalize on the EV battery boom. Investors should monitor the $7.02 52-week high as a critical resistance level and watch for follow-through volume. The sector’s momentum, led by Albemarle (ALB, +9.9%), suggests that lithium remains a strategic asset. For traders, the LAR20260116C7.5 call offers a high-velocity play on a potential breakout, while the LAR20260220C7.5 provides a safer, longer-term bet. Position now, and watch for a $7.50 close to confirm the next leg higher.