LAC Soars 15.78% on Trump-Era Equity Stake Talks: What’s Brewing in Thacker Pass?

Summary
• Lithium Americas (LAC) surges 15.78% to $6.9587, hitting a 52-week high of $7.53
• Trump administration seeks up to 10% equity stake in Thacker Pass lithium project
• $2.26B DOE loan renegotiation sparks strategic government intervention

Lithium Americas (LAC) has ignited a frenzy in the market, surging 15.78% intraday amid revelations of a potential U.S. government equity stake. The stock’s meteoric rise—driven by Trump administration negotiations for a 10% stake in the Thacker Pass project—has positioned the company at the center of a geopolitical and industrial revolution. With the DOE loan renegotiation and GM’s 38% stake in the project, LAC’s trajectory reflects a confluence of policy, energy transition, and market speculation.

Government Equity Stake Ignites Thacker Pass Hype
The Trump administration’s proposal to secure a 10% equity stake in Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass project has catalyzed a 15.78% intraday surge. This move, part of broader efforts to secure domestic lithium supply chains, aligns with the DOE’s renegotiation of a $2.26 billion loan for the project. The stake is framed as a 'cash buffer' to mitigate taxpayer risk while accelerating Thacker Pass’s development—a critical node in the U.S. EV battery supply chain. With GM’s 38% stake and offtake agreement, the project’s strategic value has been amplified, drawing institutional and retail attention to LAC’s potential as a cornerstone of American mineral independence.

Lithium Sector Rally Gains Momentum as LAC Surges
The lithium sector has rallied alongside LAC’s surge, with sector leader Albemarle (ALB) up 4.18% on the day. This synchronized movement underscores the sector’s sensitivity to geopolitical and policy-driven tailwinds. While LAC’s 15.78% gain is exceptional, the broader lithium industry is benefiting from renewed focus on domestic production and EV infrastructure. ALB’s performance highlights the sector’s resilience amid global supply chain uncertainties, with LAC’s government-backed project serving as a catalyst for renewed investor optimism.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility in a Bullish Thacker Pass Narrative
• RSI: 89.27 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.32 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.12, Histogram: 0.20
• 200-day MA: $2.938 (far below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: $1.77–$4.54 (price at upper band)

LAC’s technicals scream short-term bullish momentum, with RSI near overbought territory and MACD signaling strong upward momentum. The stock’s 52-week high of $7.53 aligns with the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting a continuation of the rally. For aggressive traders, the LAC20251017C7.5 and LAC20251121C7.5 call options offer high leverage (6.35% and 4.37%) and moderate delta (0.53 and 0.59), ideal for capitalizing on a 5% upside scenario (targeting $7.30).

Top Option 1: LAC20251017C7.5
• Code: LAC20251017C7.5
• Type: Call
• Strike: $7.50
• Expiration: 2025-10-17
• IV: 185.79% (high volatility)
• Leverage: 6.35%
• Delta: 0.53 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0329 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.122 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: $2.88M (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% Upside: $0.80 (max(0, 7.30 - 7.50) = 0.80)
This contract thrives on immediate volatility, with high gamma and leverage amplifying gains if LAC breaks above $7.50.

Top Option 2: LAC20251121C7.5
• Code: LAC20251121C7.5
• Type: Call
• Strike: $7.50
• Expiration: 2025-11-21
• IV: 161.66%
• Leverage: 4.37%
• Delta: 0.59
• Theta: -0.0169
• Gamma: 0.086
• Turnover: $3.06M
• Payoff at 5% Upside: $0.80
This option balances time decay with moderate leverage, ideal for a mid-term bullish outlook. Aggressive bulls may consider LAC20251017C7.5 into a breakout above $7.50.

Backtest Lithium Stock Performance
Here is the quantitative-backtest summary. Please review the interactive module on the right for the full statistical details and visualization.Key findings (high-level):• Total return: -75.9 % • Annualized return: -24.0 % • Maximum drawdown: 82.1 % • Sharpe ratio: -0.44 These results indicate that blindly chasing a ≥ 16 % one-day jump in LAC since 2022 has been highly unfavorable. You may consider adding exit rules (e.g., stop-loss, take-profit) or filtering by market context to improve performance.

Thacker Pass Takes Center Stage: LAC’s 15.78% Surge Signals Strategic Inflection
LAC’s 15.78% surge is not merely a stock move—it’s a geopolitical and industrial inflection point. The Trump administration’s equity stake in Thacker Pass, coupled with GM’s offtake guarantees, positions LAC as a linchpin in the U.S. EV supply chain. Technically, the stock’s overbought RSI and bullish MACD suggest a continuation of the rally, though volatility may test $7.50. Sector leader Albemarle (ALB) up 4.18% reinforces the sector’s strength. For investors, the key is to balance short-term options plays with a longer-term view on Thacker Pass’s operational milestones. Watch for a $7.50 breakout or a pullback to the 200-day MA at $2.94 as critical signals.