Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) Market Overview

• LTCJPY declined sharply from 17,188 to 15,307 over 24 hours, ending at 15,771.
• Momentum weakened with RSI near oversold, and volume surged at key lows.
• Volatility expanded early, then contracted, suggesting fading short-term pressure.
• A bearish engulfing pattern and breakdown below key support levels confirmed the downtrend.
• Strong divergence emerged between price and volume at the 15,307 swing low, hinting at potential bounce.

Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) opened at 17,102 on 2025-09-21 at 16:00 ET and closed at 15,771 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was 15,307, while the high reached 17,188. Total volume summed to 921.29, and notional turnover hit $15,178,547 during the period. The pair experienced a sharp and sustained decline, breaking below key support levels and forming bearish candlestick patterns.

Structure & Formations

Price action on LTCJPY revealed a strong bearish bias over the 24-hour period, with a breakdown from the 17,100–17,188 range to 15,307. A bearish engulfing pattern was confirmed on the 17,180–16,678 leg, which marked a turning point in sentiment. A doji formed near the 16,983–16,678 low, suggesting indecision before the large selloff. Key support levels emerged at 16,505, 15,627, and 15,307, with the last showing a strong volume spike. Resistance levels include 17,135 and 17,188.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both declined sharply, with price closing significantly below both. This confirms a strong downtrend. On the daily timeframe, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages would have been in a bearish alignment, with LTCJPY closing below all, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price is expected to remain below the 50-day MA in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish during the decline, with the histogram diverging negatively as price fell. The RSI dropped to the 20–30 range, signaling oversold conditions, but failed to produce a rebound, suggesting the trend may not reverse soon. Momentum remains weak, and a reversal would require a strong move above 16,505 with confirmation on the RSI and MACD.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as price dropped from 17,188 to 15,307, with the Bollinger Bands widening. Price then settled into a tighter band at the 15,307–15,771 range, indicating a period of consolidation. The closing price at 15,771 sits just above the 15,627 midpoint of the lower band, suggesting a potential bounce may occur if volume picks up at the 15,307 level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp decline, especially between 16,983 and 15,307, with a large volume spike at 15,307. However, volume tailed off as price moved toward the 15,771 close, indicating fading bearish momentum. Notional turnover also spiked during the selloff but declined at the close, suggesting traders may be locking in profits or pausing for reentry.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 17,188–15,307 swing, key levels are 16,563 (38.2%) and 15,720 (61.8%). Price paused briefly at 16,505 before continuing lower, missing the 38.2% level. The 61.8% level at 15,720 is close to the current price at 15,771, suggesting it may act as a temporary support area. A break below 15,307 would trigger the next leg down to 14,890–14,450.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could focus on a short-biased approach using RSI below 30 and a bearish engulfing pattern as entry triggers, with a stop loss above the 16,505 resistance and a target at 15,307–14,890. Volume confirmation at the 15,307 level could add a filter for high-probability entries. This setup aligns with the observed bearish momentum and structural breakdown in LTCJPY, making it suitable for a risk-managed, directional short trade on a daily to 4-hour chart timeframe.