Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) Market Overview: 24-Hour Breakdown and Bearish Momentum

• LTCJPY declined 24h by 7.5%, breaking below 16,000 and showing bearish momentum.
• A high-volume breakdown below 15,700 occurred, with 15,500 becoming a key near-term support.
• Volatility expanded sharply during overnight trading, with a 4.5% pullback in early morning.
• RSI oversold below 30 suggests potential for short-term bounce, but bearish bias remains.
• Bollinger Bands widened, confirming price action divergence and increased bearish conviction.

Litecoin/Yen (LTCJPY) opened at 15,988.0 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 15,988.0, dropped to a low of 15,230.0, and closed at 15,437.0 at 12:00 ET the next day. Total traded volume across the 24-hour window reached 955.06 units, with a notional turnover of ~14,716,075 Yen.

The structure of the candlestick data reveals a strong bearish bias over the 24-hour period, particularly following the formation of a large bearish engulfing pattern starting from 2025-09-24 at 19:15 ET. This candle closed at 15,790.0 after opening at 15,851.0, marking a 610 Yen drop. Further consolidation followed as price continued to decline, forming a descending pattern until it reached the intra-day low of 15,230.0. The breakdown below 15,700 marked a key psychological level, and 15,500 emerged as a critical support. A bearish trendline from the 16,000–15,800 range now appears to be invalid, and the path of least resistance is decisively downward.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show price trading well below both the 20 and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period line, which had previously acted as a support, has now turned into a resistance as price continues to fall. Daily chart indicators, though not directly visible in the data, would likely show price falling well below the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs, confirming a medium-term bearish trend.

The RSI indicator dropped below 30 and hovered in oversold territory for several hours, signaling potential for a bounce. However, as the price continued to fall without strong buying interest, the RSI failed to show a meaningful reversal, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The MACD turned negative and remained below the signal line, with the histogram showing expanding bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the overnight selloff, with price reaching the lower band at several points. This expansion indicates increased volatility and divergent market sentiment.

Volume and turnover data showed a sharp increase during the breakdown from 15,700 to 15,500, with the largest single candle (15,700–15,500) recording a turnover of ~1,556,223 Yen. This confirms strong bearish conviction during that phase. However, volume tailed off after 05:45 ET on 2025-09-25, indicating a potential exhaustion of sellers and a possible short-term reversal. Price and volume action showed some divergence after the 05:45 ET candle, with price continuing lower but volume declining, suggesting caution for further declines.

Fibonacci retracements on the key 16,000–15,230 swing show that the 15,500 level corresponds to the 61.8% retracement level, which now acts as a strong support. A bounce above this level could lead to a test of the 15,800–16,000 range. However, a break below 15,500 would target the next retracement at 15,340 and eventually 15,150.

The backtesting strategy described involves identifying bearish engulfing patterns in high-volume candles on the 15-minute chart, particularly when the RSI is in oversold territory and the price is near a Fibonacci retracement level. This strategy aligns with the observed breakdown in LTCJPY, where a high-volume bearish engulfing candle (15,851.0 to 15,790.0) coincided with a drop in RSI and a Fibonacci 61.8% support at 15,500. The strategy could include entering a short position upon confirmation of the pattern, with a stop-loss just above the engulfing candle's high and a target based on the 15,340–15,150 Fibonacci levels.