Litecoin/Tether Market Overview: Volatility, Breakouts, and Momentum Divergence

• LTCUSDT surged 7.3% over 24 hours, forming bullish momentum with strong volume spikes post-19:00 ET.
• Key resistance at $107.61 showed rejection, with consolidation around $111.13 ahead of 16:00 ET.
• RSI overbought conditions and diverging price-volume action suggest caution near recent highs.
• Bollinger Bands widened post-09:00 ET, reflecting increased volatility and potential trend continuation.
• Fibonacci 61.8% level at $109.34 was a minor support zone, with a bullish breakout confirmed by 10:45 ET.

The LTCUSDT pair opened at $104.19 on 2025-09-30 12:00 ET and surged to a high of $111.58 before closing at $111.33 on 2025-10-01 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was $104.12. Total traded volume was 148,383.84 LTC, with notional turnover reaching $15.66 million, reflecting heightened activity during the bullish push between 19:00 and 09:30 ET.

The price formation on the 15-minute chart reveals a strong bullish bias, particularly after the breakout above the prior resistance of $107.61. A key bullish engulfing pattern formed at 19:45 ET, confirming the shift in sentiment. This was followed by a measured move to $111.33, with the 15-minute 20-period SMA (around $105.7–106.8) providing dynamic support. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is near $106.4–107.0, suggesting the rally has extended well beyond this reference level, indicating strength in the uptrend.

MACD showed a bullish crossover and remained above the signal line throughout the session, with positive divergence in the final 2.5 hours suggesting potential fatigue. RSI reached overbought territory above 70 by 10:30 ET and remained elevated, raising the possibility of a short-term pullback. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly between 09:00 and 11:00 ET, with price closing near the upper band, indicating high volatility and potential consolidation ahead. Fibonacci retracement levels at 61.8% ($109.34) and 78.6% ($110.25) provided minor support and resistance respectively, with a confirmed breakout above $110.50 validating the bullish continuation.

Key resistances now sit at $111.33 (recent high) and $111.59 (prior swing high), while support is seen near $109.85 (50-period EMA on 15-min) and $109.34 (Fibonacci 61.8%). Price appears to be consolidating after the sharp rally, with a potential for a test of $111.80–$112.00 in the next 24 hours. However, caution is warranted as overbought RSI and diverging volume suggest the up-move may pause or retrace slightly. Investors should watch for a breakdown below $109.55, which could trigger a retest of the 20-period EMA near $106.85.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on the 15-minute chart when the price closes above the 20-period EMA and RSI crosses above 50, with a stop-loss placed below the 50-period SMA. If these conditions are met and confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern (as observed at 19:45 ET), the strategy could have captured the 7.3% up-move. However, given RSI’s current overbought state and volume divergence, this entry point would now be at risk of a short-term pullback. A revised entry may be more suitable if RSI drops below 70 and price stabilizes near $109.85–$110.25, aligning with the 50-period SMA and prior support.