Litecoin/Tether Market Overview

• LTC/USDT opened at $114.65, reached $115.87, and closed at $114.16 after a volatile 24-hour session.
• A bearish trend emerged with RSI overbought, followed by a pullback and a 6.1% drawdown from the high.
• Volume spiked during key highs and lows, confirming momentum shifts but not yet signaling a reversal.
• Price tested $115.00 as a psychological level; it held as support before breaking to the downside.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with price oscillating between $115.00 and $115.87 before collapsing after 20:00 ET.

Litecoin/Tether (LTC/USDT) opened at $114.65 on September 16, 2025, at 12:00 ET, and surged to a 24-hour high of $115.87 before closing at $114.16 at 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume reached 95,912.2 LTC, with a notional turnover of $10,809,902. The pair exhibited a bearish consolidation after a sharp intraday high, with price falling below key psychological levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish reversal pattern after the $115.87 high, with a large bearish candle at 03:30 ET that closed near its low of $115.31. A doji formed at 04:30 ET as the pair broke below $114.50, signaling indecision. Key support levels were identified at $114.00 and $113.75, where the price found temporary stability. The 15-minute chart showed a descending wedge forming from the $115.00 to $114.00 range, suggesting further downside could be in play if the wedge breaks to the south.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, forming a bearish "death cross" signal. The 50 MA at $114.85 and 20 MA at $114.66 indicated a potential continuation of the downward drift. On the daily chart, price closed below the 200 MA, a major bearish signal in classical technical analysis, suggesting further testing of the 50 MA at $114.40 and 100 MA at $114.25 could occur.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after 03:30 ET, with a bearish crossover in the histogram, confirming a shift in momentum. RSI hit overbought levels at 75 just before the sharp decline and fell rapidly to 44, indicating weakening bullish sentiment. The RSI divergence with price action during the pullback after the high suggests a possible exhaustion of buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Price remained outside the upper Bollinger Band for most of the early session, but pulled back sharply to sit within the bands after 03:30 ET. The band width expanded as volatility increased during the 03:00–04:00 ET period. The closing price of $114.16 fell below the 20-period Bollinger Band mean, which currently sits at $114.65, suggesting further consolidation below the band is likely in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at key turning points, particularly during the 03:30 ET bearish candle (9,217 LTC) and again during the 05:00 ET bearish move to $114.04 (6,455 LTC), confirming the bearish momentum. However, turnover began to diverge from price action as volume increased during the pullback, suggesting potential short-covering or profit-taking. This may indicate a short-term pause before the trend resumes.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute swing from $114.65 to $115.87, key Fibonacci levels were 61.8% at $115.17 and 38.2% at $115.29. Price tested both levels before falling back. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retrace of the move from $115.00 to $114.16 is $114.60, which appears to be a short-term pivot. A break below $113.75 could target the 78.6% level at $113.48, based on the recent swing low.

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable backtest strategy could focus on combining RSI divergence with Bollinger Band exits. For example, when RSI hits overbought levels and diverges with a bearish candle closing below the upper Bollinger Band, this could signal a high-probability short entry. A stop-loss could be placed above the recent swing high, with a target near the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level. This approach aligns with today’s action, where the pair broke the Bollinger Band upper bound and RSI peaked before a sharp reversal, suggesting the strategy has merit for intraday or swing traders.