Liquity/Tether (LQTYUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• Liquity/Tether opened at $0.518 and closed at $0.52, with a high of $0.547 and low of $0.512.
• Volume increased late in the session, with a total of 1,352,135.5 contracts traded.
• Momentum remained mixed, with RSI near neutral and MACD showing bearish divergence in the latter half.
• Price retested key resistance at $0.536 and support at $0.52, with mixed candlestick signals.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility expansion, with price near the lower band for most of the day.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart for LQTYUSDT displayed a range-bound pattern with multiple failed breakouts above $0.536 and below $0.512. A bullish engulfing pattern formed briefly near $0.521, but it failed to hold. A bearish harami was visible during the early hours, reinforcing the indecision in the market. Notable support appears at $0.52 and $0.517, with resistance levels forming at $0.536 and $0.541.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price remained below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is slightly above the 200-period MA, suggesting a mixed trend. The 100-period MA sits below the current price, hinting at potential short-term support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line moved below the signal line in the latter half of the session, suggesting a bearish shift in momentum. The RSI ended the day near 50, suggesting neutral conditions. However, a bearish divergence emerged in the final hours, as the RSI failed to make higher highs despite rising prices. This divergence could signal a potential reversal or continuation depending on volume action.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased during the late afternoon and evening ET, with the upper band reaching $0.547 and the lower band hitting $0.512. The price spent the majority of the session near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions that were not fully resolved. The expansion of the bands may indicate an upcoming breakout or consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly after 20:00 ET and again after midnight, with a total of 1,352,135.5 contracts traded over the 24 hours. Notional turnover amounted to approximately $709,628. The volume spikes occurred during price consolidation near key levels, suggesting accumulation or distribution. Price and volume appeared to confirm the bearish bias in the latter half of the session.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings showed the price testing the 38.2% retracement level at $0.526 and the 61.8% level at $0.532. These levels appear to have held as temporary resistance. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level is at $0.536, which has historically acted as a key level of interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of a “LQTY Bullish Engulfing” strategy using 15-minute data showed a cumulative return of –48.4%, with a maximum drawdown of 55.1%. The strategy underperformed due to a low win rate and average trade return of –2.1%. A 10% stop-loss, 20% take-profit, and 10-day holding period were assumed. This suggests the pattern may not be a reliable standalone signal in this context. Tightening entry criteria, combining with trend filters, or adjusting risk controls may improve performance.