Linea/Turkish Lira Market Overview (2025-10-04)

• LINEATRY surged 18.6% in 24 hours, reaching a high of 1.244 TRY before retracing to 1.170 TRY near close.
• Strong bullish momentum in early AM ET, followed by a sharp pullback post-noon ET.
• High volume activity confirmed key breakouts and retracements.
• RSI and MACD showed overbought levels early, followed by bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded significantly during morning session, then compressed into a range.

Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) opened at 1.1117 TRY at 12:00 ET–1 and surged to a 24-hour high of 1.244 TRY before pulling back to 1.170 TRY at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 59,875,900.0 LINEA, and turnover exceeded 1.233 billion TRY, confirming strong price action and volatility.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data revealed several key price levels. A strong bullish breakout above 1.190 TRY in the early morning was followed by a bearish engulfing pattern at 1.209 TRY, signaling potential exhaustion. A key support level emerged around 1.170–1.175 TRY, where the pair found buying interest after a mid-day correction. A doji formed near 1.233 TRY, suggesting indecision between buyers and sellers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs confirmed the morning rally, with price above both indicators for much of the session. By late morning, the 50-period SMA crossed below the 20-period SMA, signaling a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period SMAs suggest a potential retest of the 1.170–1.180 TRY support zone.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line early in the morning, confirming bullish momentum, but the crossover turned negative by 10:00 AM ET as the rally lost steam. The RSI reached overbought territory (75–85) during the morning surge, then diverged downward from price as the retracement deepened. RSI levels now hover near 50, suggesting equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the morning rally, with price surging outside the upper Bollinger band. By mid-morning, bands began to contract, indicating reduced volatility. Price closed near the middle band, suggesting consolidation after the sharp move. A further test of the lower band may occur if bearish momentum resumes.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the morning session, peaking at 7.2M LINEA and 1.23B TRY turnover at 9:45 AM ET. Volume dropped off significantly after the 10:00 AM ET high, signaling exhaustion. A volume-based divergence occurred between price and turnover after 10:30 AM, suggesting weakening bullish conviction. Recent volume remains above 20-day averages, confirming market interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 1.1117 TRY to 1.244 TRY move include 38.2% at 1.184 TRY, 50% at 1.177 TRY, and 61.8% at 1.169 TRY. Price found support at the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting it could be a short-term floor. A break below this level may target 1.155 TRY as the next major Fibonacci level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a breakout and retest system, entering long on a confirmed breakout above the 1.190 TRY level with a stop loss below 1.185 TRY and a target at 1.215 TRY. Alternatively, a short trade could be initiated after a bearish engulfing pattern with a stop loss above the pattern’s high. This hypothesis aligns with the morning breakout and afternoon pullback, offering a testable framework for future price action.