LINEA/Turkish Lira Market Overview – 2025-09-22

• LINEATRY surged from 1.1193 to 1.448 before retreating to 1.1955 amid volatile 24-hour trading.
• Momentum turned bearish after midday with RSI under 40 and MACD bearish crossover.
• Peak volatility occurred between 19:00–21:00 ET, with 45M+ volume in critical pullback.
• Price found near-term support around 1.20–1.22 and rejected 1.27–1.28 resistance.
• Divergence noted in volume and price: strong volume with weaker closing prices post 02:00 ET.

24-Hour Summary and Context

Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) opened at 1.3124 at 12:00 ET-1 and reached an intraday high of 1.448 before closing at 1.1955 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. Total volume traded was 645,771,967.0 TRY, with a notional turnover of approximately 64,155,513.46 TRY. This volatile session saw strong volume in both bullish and bearish phases, with a major reversal unfolding after midday.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a large bearish engulfing pattern around 19:30–20:30 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. A significant low at 1.1193 served as short-term support before a brief rebound. A potential double-top formation developed near 1.36–1.43, with failed breakouts on both occasions. A doji at 00:00 ET signaled indecision, and price fell below 1.30 thereafter. Key support appears at 1.20–1.24, with 1.19–1.18 likely to be next targets unless buyers intervene.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, a bearish crossover occurred between the 20-EMA (1.33) and 50-EMA (1.31) around 20:00 ET, confirming the downward trend. For the daily chart, the 50-SMA is at 1.34, with price well below the 100- and 200-day levels, suggesting a strong bearish bias. Price may test 1.20–1.22 as the next support zone aligned with the 50-EMA.

MACD & RSI

RSI fell from overbought territory above 70 to sub-40 levels by 06:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions. The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the bearish reversal around 20:00 ET and remained negative for the remainder of the session. Momentum has weakened significantly, and a rebound is unlikely without a move above 1.30 and RSI re-entry above 45.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the midday surge, with price reaching 1.448 at the upper band. After the 20:00 ET reversal, volatility contracted again, and price moved into the lower half of the bands. Current readings show price near the lower band at 1.1955, suggesting oversold conditions and potential for a rebound. A breakout above the upper band (around 1.33–1.35) would require strong buying pressure and volume confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the midday rally and again during the late-night sell-off, with the largest candle being the 45M+ volume bar at 19:00 ET. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern but diverged slightly after 02:00 ET, with volume remaining high while prices continued to fall. This divergence suggests weakening conviction in the bearish move, and a reversal could be in the works if volume picks up on a rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 1.1193–1.448 swing, key retracement levels are at 1.28 (23.6%), 1.34 (38.2%), and 1.40 (61.8%). Price failed to hold above 1.34–1.36, and the 1.28 level has acted as resistance multiple times. A break below 1.19 could target 1.15 (78.6%) if the downtrend continues, but a rebound near 1.20–1.22 could test the 38.2% and 50% levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined involves entering a long position on a bullish breakout above the 50-EMA with RSI above 45 and volume increasing by at least 20% relative to the 30-minute average. A short position is triggered on a bearish breakdown below the 20-EMA with RSI below 40 and volume spiking by 30%. Stops are placed 2% below/above entry levels, and targets are based on Fibonacci levels. This approach would have generated a sell signal around 20:00 ET and a buy signal at 06:00 ET, with stop losses triggered on both sides, highlighting the high volatility and potential for false signals in this asset class. Given the current price and indicators, a short setup appears more valid for the near term.