Lido DAO/Tether Market Overview (2025-10-08)

• LDOUSDT declined 2.36% over 24 hours, closing near key support at 1.1772.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with a peak-to-trough move of 1.1967 to 1.1676.
• Volume spiked during bearish breakouts but failed to confirm further downside.
• RSI reached 29.1 in the early hours, suggesting oversold conditions.
• A large bullish engulfing pattern formed around 1.1746-1.1828 as buyers re-entered.

LDOUSDT opened at 1.1879 on 2025-10-07 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.2067, a low of 1.1676, and closed at 1.1773 on 2025-10-08 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 11,234,263.99, and notional turnover was $13,442,957.44. The pair spent much of the day in consolidation before a late-night bearish breakdown.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish trend with multiple key support levels tested. A critical 1.1776-1.1786 support cluster held firm overnight, but the price dipped as low as 1.1676 during the 04:30 ET session. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed from 1.1746 (open) to 1.1828 (close) at 09:30 ET, signaling potential short-covering. A doji formed at 1.1772 during the 12:00 ET candle, hinting at indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remained below the 20-period (1.1839) and 50-period (1.1861) moving averages for the majority of the session, confirming the short-term bearish bias. The 50-period MA acted as a resistance line early in the evening, while the 20-period MA was tested but not breached during the morning bullish bounce.

On the daily chart, the 50-period (1.182) and 200-period (1.1798) moving averages are converging, suggesting a potential short-term bottoming process if support at 1.1772 holds.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line moved below zero after 01:00 ET and remained bearish for most of the session. It showed a bearish divergence with price during the 03:30–05:30 ET range. RSI hit 29.1 during the early morning hours before rising into the neutral zone, suggesting possible oversold conditions. A bearish RSI crossover occurred after 02:00 ET, aligning with a sharp price drop.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly between 02:00 and 04:30 ET, with the upper band reaching 1.2067 and the lower band dropping to 1.1676. Price traded near the lower band during the early morning hours, with a strong bearish push after 03:30 ET. The contraction of the bands following the 04:45 ET candle indicated a potential reversal setup.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish breakdown, with the 03:30 ET candle recording a volume of 340,005.59, the highest of the session. Notional turnover reached $409,616.58 during that period. However, subsequent candles showed reduced volume despite further price declines, hinting at weakening bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price retested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1796 before falling to 1.1676. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level at 1.181 aligns with the 50-period MA and is a key area to watch for a potential bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for LDOUSDT involves entering long positions after a bullish engulfing pattern forms at key support levels, especially when RSI drops below 30 and volume surges. The strategy would place a stop loss just below the engulfing pattern's low and a take profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level or near a major moving average. Given today's action, this setup was visible during the 09:30 ET candle at 1.1746–1.1828, with RSI at 33.8 and volume rising to $189,829.36. A confirmation of such a pattern on a 15-minute chart may offer a short-term reversal trade with a favorable risk-to-reward profile.