Lido DAO/Tether (LDOUSDT) Market Overview

• LDOUSDT dropped 8.2% in 24 hours, closing at 1.1091 from 1.26.
• Price tested Bollinger Band support and key Fibonacci levels below 1.12.
• Volatility surged with a 6.5M+ turnover spike at 06:15 ET amid sharp decline.
• RSI remains oversold (<30), while MACD shows bearish divergence. • Key support at 1.1063 and 1.09; next resistance at 1.125–1.13.

LDOUSDT opened at 1.26 (12:00 ET - 1), surged to 1.2671, dropped to 1.09 at 06:15 ET, and closed at 1.1091 (12:00 ET). Total volume was 60.28M tokens, with a notional turnover of $6.58M. Price action reflected strong bearish momentum, especially after the 06:15 ET break below 1.12.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish continuation after a large bearish candle formed at 06:15 ET, closing near the session low of 1.09. This candle, combined with a lower shadow, suggests exhaustion at the 1.1063 level (Fibonacci 38.2% of the 06:15–08:00 recovery). A potential bullish engulfing pattern may form above 1.112–1.113 if buyers show conviction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA and 50-EMA crossed bearishly below price, confirming the downtrend. On the daily chart, price remains below the 50/100/200 DMAs, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias. A retest of the 50-DMA at ~1.12–1.13 may trigger a temporary bounce.

MACD & RSI

RSI is currently in oversold territory (<30), indicating possible near-term exhaustion for sellers, but divergence in MACD suggests bearish momentum remains strong. The MACD histogram continues to widen below zero, showing that the downward move is accelerating rather than decelerating.

Bollinger Bands

Price tested the lower Bollinger Band at ~1.109 and bounced slightly, but the overall volatility has expanded sharply since the 06:15 ET break. This suggests increasing uncertainty and possible continuation of the downtrend unless a strong reversal candle emerges near 1.1063.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 602,830 at 06:15 ET during the critical break below 1.12, confirming the bearish sentiment. Notional turnover surged to $6.58M during this period, aligning with price action. However, volume has not surged on the subsequent rebound, suggesting weak follow-through from buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% Fib level at 1.1063 and the 61.8% at 1.09 have held as support. A break below 1.09 would target 1.082–1.075. On the upside, the 1.112–1.113 level represents a critical pivot; a close above 1.125 could signal a deeper consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish momentum and oversold RSI, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short entry on a break below 1.1063, with a stop just above 1.112 and a target at 1.09. A countertrend long could also be tested on a bullish reversal pattern forming above 1.1063, with a stop below 1.103 and a target at 1.118. These setups would leverage both trend-following and reversal logic, aligned with the current volatility and structure.