Li Auto Rises 3.32% Over Two Sessions After 8.32% Plunge Tests Key Support

Li Auto (LI) concluded the latest session with a 0.39% gain, extending its advance to a second consecutive day with a cumulative 3.32% increase. This upward momentum follows a sharp 8.32% decline on August 27, which tested critical technical levels discussed below. The following analysis integrates multiple indicators to assess Li Auto’s technical posture.
Candlestick Theory
The August 27 candle formed a long red body ($22.42–$23.46) closing near session lows, signaling intense selling pressure. This was immediately countered by a robust green candle on August 28 ($22.65–$24.28), which reclaimed over half the prior day’s loss and established $22.42 as a tactical support. The subsequent small-bodied green candle on August 29 ($23.03–$23.61) indicates consolidation after the rebound. Resistance is evident near $24.65–$24.78 (August 26 high), while the $22.42 low serves as immediate support. A decisive close above $24.30 would confirm bullish continuation, whereas failure to hold $23.03 may signal weakness.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (approximately $25.50) resides above the current price ($23.35), reflecting intermediate-term bearish pressure. Conversely, the 200-day SMA (estimated near $24.80) remains a long-term anchor. Both moving averages slope downward, confirming the bearish trend. The 100-day SMA (around $25.20) reinforces this resistance structure. Price action below all three key MAs emphasizes prevailing downtrend conditions. A bullish reversal would require a sustained climb above the 50-day SMA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12/26/9) shows the MACD line below the signal line but narrowing its negative histogram, hinting at weakening downward momentum. This aligns with the KDJ indicator where the %K line (14-period) has crossed above %D from oversold territory (<20), triggering a buy signal. However, both oscillators remain below their midlines, suggesting bearish sentiment prevails. Confluence exists as KDJ’s bullish crossover and MACD’s histogram improvement support short-term recovery potential.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted significantly in late August, culminating in an August 27 breakdown below the lower band ($23.00–$24.00 estimated range). This volatility spike was followed by a sharp mean-reversion rally back toward the 20-day SMA (mid-band). The squeeze-then-expansion pattern typically precedes directional trends. Current price hovers near the lower-mid band, indicating neither overbought nor oversold extremes, but the August 27 band breach warns of residual volatility risk.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged to 14.25M shares on the August 27 sell-off, validating the breakdown. The subsequent rebound saw robust volume (16.75M shares on August 28), confirming accumulation interest near support. However, the August 29 advance occurred on diminished volume (5.32M), raising sustainability concerns. This divergence requires monitoring; renewed volume expansion on upside moves would strengthen the recovery case.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI rebounded from oversold levels (27.5 on August 27) to near 40 as of August 29. While exiting the oversold zone (<30) supports the bounce, RSI remains below the neutral 50 threshold, reflecting ongoing bearish momentum. Its current position suggests Li Auto has room to advance before nearing overbought territory (>70), but reversal risks persist if RSI fails to breach 50.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the July 29 high ($31.10) and August 27 low ($22.42) as anchor points, key retracement levels emerge: 38.2% ($25.58), 50% ($26.76), and 61.8% ($27.95). The recent rally stalled near the 23.6% level ($24.35)—aligning with August 26’s intraday high ($24.78). This reinforces $24.30–$24.80 as critical resistance. A breakout above 23.6% could target 38.2%, though rejection here would sustain the downtrend.
Confluence and Divergence Notes
Strong confluence exists near $22.42, where the candlestick low, Bollinger Band breach, and KDJ oversold signal collectively underpinned the rebound. Divergence is observed between recovering price action and mediocre volume on August 29, suggesting caution. Additionally, bearish alignment persists in moving averages and RSI positioning, though oscillators (KDJ, MACD) support near-term upside continuation if volume improves. The $24.30–$24.80 zone remains decisive—clearing it may trigger short-covering toward $25.50 (50-day SMA), while rejection could retest $22.42 support.