Li Auto Extends Losing Streak To 7 Days With 9.06% Drop As Bearish Signals Mount

Li Auto closed at $25.945 in the latest session, declining 0.75% and extending its losing streak to seven consecutive days with a cumulative 9.06% drop. This persistent downturn establishes $25.80 as immediate support, reflecting the July 3 low, while resistance is now evident near $28.50, aligning with June’s failed rebound attempts.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlesticks reveal a sustained bearish pattern, characterized by consecutive lower highs and lower lows. The seven-day decline includes multiple long red bodies with minimal lower wicks, signaling strong selling pressure. A key support zone emerges near $25.80 (May-June swing lows), while resistance solidifies at $28.50, confirmed by June 23-24 rejection candles. The absence of reversal patterns like hammers or engulfing formations suggests continued downside bias.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($27.50) has crossed below the 100-day MA ($27.80), forming a bearish "death cross," while the 200-day MA ($26.40) flattens, indicating eroding long-term momentum. Current price ($25.95) trades below all three averages, confirming a bearish posture. The convergence of the 50-day and 100-day MAs near $27.50 creates a robust resistance zone, likely limiting upside reversals.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows sustained bearish momentum, with the histogram deepening in negative territory since early June, though its recent narrowing suggests slowing downside intensity. The KDJ (9,3,3) registers extreme oversold conditions (K:20, D:25, J:10), yet lacks a bullish crossover. Divergence emerges as KDJ’s oversold signal conflicts with MACD’s bearish trajectory, warning of potential consolidation but not yet reversal.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded sharply during the sell-off, with price breaching the lower band ($25.20) for three consecutive sessions, signaling oversold conditions. The band width spike from June’s low volatility warns of continuation risk, but a mean-reversion bounce toward the 20-day SMA ($27.00) remains possible if price reclaims the lower band.
Volume-Price Relationship
Downside volume validation is inconsistent: the June 23 rally (+7.96%) saw high volume (7.06M shares), confirming bullish conviction, but recent declines lack commensurate volume spikes. The July 2 sell-off (-2.57%) generated elevated volume (6.85M shares), supporting bearish momentum, while muted volume during the July 3 dip suggests exhaustion. Sustained closes below $26 on low volume may foreshadow a technical bounce.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (25) resides deeply in oversold territory, near its lowest level since April 2025. While this warns of exhaustion, the absence of bullish divergence—RSI made consecutive lower lows alongside price—diminishes reversal prospects. Historically, Li Auto’s RSI below 30 triggered temporary bounces (e.g., late May 2025), but failure to hold above 30 within three sessions would reinforce bearish control.
Fibonacci Retracement
Drawing Fib levels from the February 26 peak ($33.915) to May’s swing low ($23.80) reveals critical thresholds. The recent breakdown breached the 50% retracement ($28.86), accelerating the fall toward the 61.8% level ($25.86). Current price tests this support, with a decisive close below opening the 78.6% retracement ($23.80). Confluence exists near $25.80, where Fib, horizontal support, and Bollinger’s lower band align—a pivotal inflection zone.
Concluding Synthesis
Confluence exists at the $25.80–$26.00 support, reinforced by Fib retracement (61.8%), horizontal price structure, and oversold Bollinger/RSI readings. However, moving average alignment, MACD bearishness, and no candlestick reversals advocate caution. A rebound may target $27.00–$27.50 (Bollinger midline + 50/100-day MA resistance), yet failure to reclaim $26.00 promptly risks extending losses toward $23.80. Divergence between oversold oscillators (KDJ/RSI) and trend-following tools (MACD/MAs) implies a tactical bounce is probable but not necessarily sustainable.