Leftist senator Cepeda 37.1% vs 18.9% De la Espriella: Invamer

Leftist senator Cepeda 37.1% vs 18.9% De la Espriella: Invamer

Leftist Presidential Candidate Cepeda Surges in Latest Invamer Poll

A recent poll by Invamer, released on November 30, 2024, reveals a significant shift in Colombia's presidential race, with leftist senator Iván Cepeda securing 37.1% of first-round vote intentions, far ahead of right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, who garnered 18.9% according to the Invamer poll. This marks a notable rise for Cepeda, whose support has grown substantially since October 2024, positioning him as a leading contender in the election.

The poll, the first official survey since a temporary legal ban on electoral polling, highlights Cepeda's strong appeal as the sole representative of the extreme left and the perceived heir to the policies of outgoing President Gustavo Petro. His campaign has benefited from extensive social media promotion, reportedly amplifying his visibility and solidifying his status as a household name. In contrast, de la Espriella, a former finance minister, and centrist candidate Sergio Fajardo have seen more modest gains, reflecting a divided right-center bloc.

The data underscores a broader realignment in Colombian politics, with voters increasingly gravitating toward candidates associated with Petro's administration. Analysts note that Cepeda's platform—emphasizing social welfare expansion and environmental policies—resonates with segments of the electorate prioritizing continuity. However, challenges remain, including economic concerns such as inflation and fiscal sustainability, which could influence voter behavior in the run-up to the election.

With the first round scheduled for June 2026, the race remains dynamic. Subsequent polls will be critical in assessing whether Cepeda's lead holds or if late-stage shifts occur. For investors, the outcome carries implications for policy direction, particularly regarding fiscal spending, labor reforms, and international trade agreements.

According to the Invamer poll: Released November 30, 2024.