LayerZero/Bitcoin (ZROBTC) Market Overview for 2025-10-11

• Price dropped sharply overnight from 1.84e-05 to 1.67e-05, signaling bearish momentum with a large-volume selloff.
• RSI and MACD show bearish divergence, with price failing to recover after key resistance levels.
• Volatility expanded overnight, with a massive 15-minute candle on 21:30 ET printing a low of 4.4e-05.
• Volume spiked dramatically during the selloff, confirming bearish sentiment and divergence from price rebound attempts.
• Fibonacci levels at 1.65e-05 and 1.58e-05 suggest potential support for a short-term bounce but bearish continuation likely.

The ZROBTC pair opened at 1.822e-05 at 12:00 ET-1 and reached a high of 1.868e-05. It fell to a low of 4.4e-05 and closed at 1.635e-05 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 549,579.07, and notional turnover was approximately $9.48 (based on BTC price). The market experienced extreme volatility overnight, marked by a massive selloff and heavy volume.

Structure & Formations

The price chart shows a distinct breakdown pattern after a failed attempt to retest key resistance levels above 1.85e-05. A long bearish candle at 21:30 ET (time: 2025-10-10 213000) printed a low of 4.4e-05, followed by a sharp rebound that failed to hold above 1.6e-05. This candlestick suggests a potential bear trap or a confirmation of bearish momentum. A morning consolidation phase showed mixed signals with a bullish engulfing pattern at 09:30 ET, but the trend continued lower.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price line overnight, reinforcing the bearish bias. The daily chart shows the 50-period SMA at 1.76e-05, the 100-period SMA at 1.8e-05, and the 200-period SMA at 1.84e-05, all above current levels, suggesting a potential for further downward movement.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover with the signal line at the start of the selloff, reinforcing the downward move. The RSI has been in oversold territory since 01:00 ET, but price failed to make a meaningful rebound, indicating potential for a continuation of the downtrend. Divergence between RSI and price movement highlights the bearish momentum despite technical oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands

The price traded below the 20-period Bollinger Band lower band during the selloff, indicating high volatility and bearish continuation. The bands have widened significantly, reflecting increased uncertainty and potential for further downside. The price has remained near the lower band for much of the session, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff, with the most significant spike occurring at 21:30 ET, where over 83,613.16 volume was recorded. Turnover confirmed the bearish sentiment as price moved lower. However, the morning session saw a slight volume increase during the brief rebound attempt, but it was not enough to confirm a reversal. Divergence between volume and price during the rebound suggests bearish continuation is likely.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent swing from the high of 1.868e-05 to the low of 4.4e-05 marks a strong bearish move. Fibonacci levels at 38.2% (1.65e-05) and 61.8% (1.58e-05) appear to be critical support levels. The price bounced slightly off the 38.2% level but failed to sustain above it, suggesting a potential for further decline toward the 61.8% level. Daily Fibonacci levels also indicate a bearish continuation from the recent high.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could be built around the use of Fibonacci retracements and RSI divergence as entry signals during downtrends. A long bias would not be appropriate here, but a short strategy could use Fibonacci levels as targets and RSI oversold levels as filters to avoid false breakouts. A volume-based confirmation filter would enhance signal reliability. This approach aligns with the observed divergence and bearish momentum in the current ZROBTC chart.