Layer 2 Tokens: Can Rising Usage Justify Diminishing Token Value Capture?

The blockchain industry has long grappled with a paradox: as decentralized networks scale, their native tokens often fail to reflect the value of that growth. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Layer 2 (L2) ecosystem, where networks like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base have achieved staggering adoption metrics-yet their token prices have lagged, creating a structural misalignment between utility and value capture. This disconnect raises a critical question for investors: Can rising usage alone justify the diminishing returns for token holders?

The Growth Paradox: TVL and Transaction Volume vs. Token Performance

Layer 2 networks have become the backbone of Ethereum's scalability ambitions. By 2025, cumulative TVL across L2s had surged to $39.39 billion, with daily transactions exceeding 1.9 million. Arbitrum, the dominant player, commands 51% of the TVL market share, securing $16.63 billion in assets. Base, Coinbase's L2 solution, has overtaken Arbitrum in TVL, reaching $4.48 billion by December 2025, while Optimism's TVL stands at $9.36 billion. These figures underscore robust adoption, particularly in DeFi, where 65% of new smart contracts now deploy on L2s.

Yet, token performance tells a different story. Optimism's (OP) price plummeted from $2.18 in early 2025 to $0.234 by October 2025, despite its TVL declining from $1.02 billion to $301.42 million. Arbitrum's (ARB) token, trading at $0.21 as of December 2025, has also underperformed relative to its $16.3 billion TVL. Base, which lacks a native token, has seen its TVL grow to $12 billion, but its tokenless model raises questions about how value will be distributed to users or investors.

Structural Misalignment: Why Usage Doesn't Translate to Token Value

The disconnect between usage and token performance stems from three key factors: tokenomics design, competition, and macroeconomic headwinds.

1. Tokenomics and Inflationary Pressures
   Many L2 tokens suffer from dilution due to large, recurring unlocks. Arbitrum releases 90–100 million ARB tokens monthly, while Optimism's 81 million OP unlock in April 2025 exacerbated downward pressure. These unlocks flood the market, undermining scarcity and investor confidence. Meanwhile, token utilities remain underdeveloped. Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, where tokens are tied to network security or governance, L2 tokens often lack clear value propositions. For example, ARB's roadmap includes staking and fee-sharing mechanisms, but these are still in development.

2. Competition and Network Effects
   Base's TVL growth, driven by Coinbase's ecosystem, has eroded Arbitrum's dominance. Optimism's "Superchain" vision aims to foster interoperability but has yet to translate into TVL gains. This fragmentation dilutes the value of individual tokens, as users and developers spread across multiple networks.

3. Macroeconomic and Market Conditions
   The Ethereum mainnet's declining fee revenue-due to L2 migration-has hurt its deflationary narrative, indirectly affecting L2 tokens. Additionally, macroeconomic factors like Federal Reserve policy and tax-loss harvesting have amplified volatility. For example, Starknet's (STRK) 477% trading volume surge in Q4 2025 was driven by Bitcoin staking innovations, not Ethereum's ecosystem.

The Path Forward: Can L2 Tokens Realign with Usage?

The answer hinges on whether token models evolve to reflect the networks' utility. Optimism's long-term price forecasts-ranging from $3 to $40.90 by 2030-depend on the success of its Superchain initiative and Ethereum's L2 adoption. Arbitrum's BoLD upgrade and Stylus platform aim to strengthen its position, but token holders will need clearer value capture mechanisms. Base's potential token launch could introduce governance and fee-sharing, but its tokenless past suggests a focus on user experience over speculative value.

For now, the data reveals a market in flux. While L2 networks are undeniably scaling, their tokens remain disconnected from the metrics that define their success. Investors must weigh the promise of future utility against current realities: high TVL, but low token prices; strong transaction volumes, but weak correlations to price.

Conclusion

The Layer 2 story is one of innovation and adoption, but it is not yet a story of value capture. Until tokenomics align with network growth-through staking, governance, or fee-sharing-investors may continue to see a gap between usage and returns. For now, the L2 ecosystem is a work in progress, and its tokens are priced with a question mark.