New Launches Spur Private Home Sales in Singapore Amid Shifting Market Dynamics

Singapore’s private home market kicked off 2025 with a mix of resilience and caution, as new launches drove sales volumes while broader economic uncertainties and policy measures kept price growth in check. With over 3,400 non-landed units sold in the first quarter—marking the strongest start since 2021—the market remains a focal point for investors, though challenges loom.

New Launches Power Sales, But Momentum Slows

Private residential transactions in Q1 2025 totaled 6,299 units, a 15% quarterly decline from the end of 2024. However, new launches, such as The Orie in Novena and Parktown Residence in Toa Payoh, drew strong buyer interest. These projects set new benchmarks for pricing in their respective areas, yet sales volumes were tempered by rising supply and cautious sentiment.

Notably, February 2025 saw a surge to 1,575 new home sales, up 45% from January, though still below the 2013 peak of 2,793 units. The resale market, meanwhile, faced a 7.7% annual volume decline, as buyers shifted toward newer, more affordable options.

Price Growth Moderates, Affordability Drives Demand

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) reported a 0.6% quarterly rise in the private residential price index—down sharply from 2.3% in Q4 2024. Regional disparities narrowed to historic lows, with the price gap between core central (CCR) and other regions dropping to 4.1% (CCR vs. RCR) and 20.6% (CCR vs. OCR). This reflects a market prioritizing affordability: 72% of non-landed sales in Q1 were priced under S$2.5 million, up from 65% the prior quarter.

Supply Surge and Policy Pressures Ahead

The government’s plans to release 50,000 Build-to-Order (BTO) flats by 2028—including 12,000 with expedited allocations—and double Executive Condominium (EC) launches to 2,000 units in 2025 aim to cool demand. These measures could ease price pressures, particularly in the mass-market segment. However, developers are bracing for challenges:

• Prime Market Risks: High-end launches, such as ELTA in the CBD, may struggle as buyers grow cost-conscious.
• Economic Uncertainties: Slowing GDP growth and global trade tensions could dampen demand from income-sensitive buyers.

Expert Forecasts: Caution Amid Resilience

Analysts offer divergent outlooks for 2025:
- PropNex predicts 3–4% annual price growth (in line with 2024’s 3.9% rise) and 8,000–9,000 new home sales.
- CBRE anticipates 7,000–8,000 new sales, highlighting risks for luxury projects.
- JLL warns of a potential slowdown in mid-tier markets due to economic headwinds.

Conclusion: A Market in Transition

Singapore’s private home market is at a crossroads. New launches have sustained sales, but the moderation in price growth and policy-driven supply expansions signal a shift toward stabilization rather than speculative gains. Investors should prioritize projects in affordable price brackets (below S$2.5 million) and monitor macroeconomic factors closely.

While the URA’s price index remains positive, the narrowing regional gaps and affordability trends suggest a long-term correction toward more balanced pricing. With 50,000 new BTO units in the pipeline and EC supply doubling, the market may cool further—making timing and location critical for future gains.

In short, Singapore’s private residential sector is proving resilient but increasingly pragmatic, with 2025 shaping up as a year of tempered optimism.