Lithium Americas (LAC) Soars 17.5% on Trump-Era Equity Stake Rumors: A Strategic Play for U.S. Mineral Independence?

Summary
• Lithium Americas (LAC) surges 17.47% intraday, hitting $7.06 amid Trump administration equity stake rumors.
• Company in talks to renegotiate $2.2B DOE loan for Thacker Pass mine, with potential 10% government stake.
• Thacker Pass, North America’s largest lithium deposit, set to produce 40,000 metric tons annually by 2028.
• Options volatility spikes: 183% implied volatility on October 17th $7.50 calls and puts.

Lithium Americas (LAC) has ignited a frenzy in 2025, surging 17.47% to $7.06 in a single trading session. This explosive move follows reports that the Trump administration is seeking an equity stake in the Canadian miner as part of a $2.2 billion loan renegotiation for its Thacker Pass lithium project. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $7.53, the market is betting on a strategic shift in U.S. mineral policy. The Thacker Pass mine, a cornerstone of North America’s lithium supply chain, is now at the center of a geopolitical and economic showdown between Washington and Beijing.

Trump’s Equity Stake Proposal Ignites Speculative Frenzy
The Trump administration’s reported pursuit of a 10% equity stake in Lithium Americas has catalyzed a speculative surge in LAC shares. This move, tied to renegotiating the $2.2 billion Department of Energy loan for Thacker Pass, signals a broader strategy to secure U.S. access to critical minerals. The White House’s interest in direct ownership mirrors recent interventions in companies like MP Materials and Intel, aiming to de-risk supply chains against Chinese dominance. With Thacker Pass projected to produce 40,000 metric tons of battery-grade lithium annually—enough for 800,000 EVs—the administration’s stake could provide political and financial guarantees, accelerating project timelines and reducing taxpayer exposure. This alignment of national security and corporate growth has galvanized investors, driving LAC’s 17.47% intraday rally.

Options Volatility and ETFs: Navigating the Lithium Bull Run
• RSI: 89.27 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.32 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.12, Histogram: 0.20
• 200-day MA: $2.94 (far below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: $1.77–$4.54 (price near upper band)
• Implied Volatility: 183.91% (October 17th $7.50 calls)

LAC’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend amid overbought conditions. The RSI at 89.27 indicates potential exhaustion, but the MACD’s positive divergence and Bollinger Band positioning near the upper limit suggest momentum could persist. For traders, the October 17th $7.50 call (LAC20251017C7.5) and put (LAC20251017P7.5) stand out. The call has a 54.93% delta, 183.91% implied volatility, and a 6.14% leverage ratio, offering high gearing for a 5% upside scenario (projected payoff: $0.53). The put, with a -44.77% delta and 188.10% IV, provides downside protection if sentiment reverses. Both contracts have high turnover ($3.0M and $542K) and gamma above 0.11, ensuring sensitivity to price swings. Aggressive bulls should target the $7.50 call for a 5% upside, while hedgers may pair it with the put to cap risk.

Backtest Lithium Stock Performance
Below is a concise review of the test, followed by an interactive module that lets you explore every metric and trade in detail.Key takeaways • Trigger: Close-of-day buy whenever LAC jumps ≥17 % intraday (2022-01-01 → 2025-09-25). • Exit rule (auto-filled): flat after 5 trading days. A 5-day window is the most common “event-study” holding period for short-term news/price shocks; it keeps the test tightly focused on immediate follow-through while limiting longer-term drift. • Results: –7.5 % total return, –1.7 % annualised, –22.5 % max drawdown, Sharpe –0.18. Average hit -3.4 %; best +5.3 %, worst –12.1 %. In short, buying the surge did not pay off over the subsequent week.Explore the trades and equity curve via the module:Feel free to dive into the module; let me know if you’d like to tweak parameters (e.g., alternative exit horizons or risk controls) or run the same test on different tickers.

LAC’s Strategic Inflection Point: A New Era for U.S. Lithium
Lithium Americas’ 17.47% surge underscores the stock’s role in a pivotal shift toward U.S. mineral independence. With the Trump administration’s equity stake proposal and Thacker Pass’s 2028 production timeline, LAC is positioned to capitalize on both geopolitical tailwinds and EV demand. However, overbought technicals and high implied volatility suggest caution. Investors should monitor the October 17th $7.50 call/put pair for directional bets, while keeping an eye on Albemarle (ALB), the sector leader up 4.49%. A breakdown below $6.37 could trigger a reevaluation of the bullish thesis. For now, the administration’s stake and Thacker Pass’s strategic value make LAC a high-conviction play in a sector poised for disruption.