El ralentismo estructural del mercado laboral en Estados Unidos: Implicaciones para la estrategia de inversión para el año 2026

The U.S. labor market is undergoing a structural slowdown, driven by the long-term effects of Trump-era policies and the accelerating adoption of AI-driven labor substitution. These forces are reshaping employment dynamics, exacerbating demographic disparities, and influencing Federal Reserve rate policy for 2026. Investors must navigate this evolving landscape by understanding the interplay between policy, technology, and labor market resilience.

Trump-Era Policies: A Dual-Edged Sword for Job Creation

The Trump administration's focus on shrinking the federal workforce and incentivizing private sector growth has left a lasting imprint. By 2025, private sector job creation had added 687,000 positions, while federal employment fell by 271,000 jobs. However, this shift disproportionately impacted foreign-born workers, with 972,000 losing employment and 1.1 million exiting the labor force. Racial disparities further compounded these trends, as Black workers faced an unemployment rate of 7.5% in August 2025-nearly double that of white workers.

The administration's aggressive tariff policies, while intended to protect domestic industries, have had unintended consequences. Manufacturing and construction sectors, central to Trump's economic agenda, saw job losses in 2025. Tariffs on semiconductors and other goods have also disrupted supply chains, forcing companies to prioritize domestic production. These policies, combined with reduced federal resources for workforce retraining, have left a labor market increasingly polarized between high-skill and low-skill workers.

AI-Driven Labor Substitution: Productivity Gains and Displacement Risks

AI adoption is accelerating, creating a "bifurcated economy" where high-income workers benefit from productivity gains while lower-wage workers face displacement. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged that AI is already boosting GDP growth projections for 2026 to 2.3%, driven by investments in data centers and computing infrastructure. However, this progress comes at a cost: industries like manufacturing and radiology are automating complex tasks, compressing career pathways and reducing entry-level opportunities.

The Trump administration's AI Action Plan sought to mitigate these effects through retraining initiatives and workforce hubs. Yet, implementation has been hindered by reduced federal funding and political resistance to diversity-focused programs. The result is a labor market where new college graduates face near-10% unemployment in 2026-a level last seen during the 2011 recovery-highlighting the growing mismatch between AI-driven demand and traditional skill sets.

Federal Reserve Policy: Navigating a K-Shaped Recovery

The Federal Reserve's 2026 rate policy will be shaped by a K-shaped economic environment, where AI-driven sectors thrive while others stagnate. Trump-era deregulation and tax incentives-such as 100% bonus depreciation for machinery and domestic R&D expensing- have spurred investments in semiconductors. These policies, combined with tariffs on imports, are reshaping global supply chains, with 54% of semiconductor executives prioritizing geographic diversification.

However, the Fed faces a delicate balancing act. While AI's productivity gains could eventually offset labor market polarization, the immediate displacement risks and rising unemployment (4.6% in November 2025) necessitate cautious monetary easing. Powell has signaled potential rate cuts in 2026 to support economic stability, though inflationary pressures from AI-related infrastructure spending and Trump's protectionist trade policies remain a concern. The appointment of a new Fed chair by President Trump in May 2026 could further tilt policy toward pro-growth measures, amplifying market volatility.

Investment Implications for 2026

For investors, the key lies in hedging against structural shifts while capitalizing on AI-driven growth. Sectors poised to benefit include semiconductors, data centers, and AI-enabled manufacturing, which are receiving federal incentives. Conversely, industries reliant on low-skill labor-such as retail and hospitality- face heightened automation risks.

The Federal Reserve's dovish stance suggests a favorable environment for equities and high-yield debt, but investors should remain wary of inflationary headwinds from Trump's tariffs and infrastructure spending. Defensive assets, such as utilities and healthcare, may offer stability amid sector-specific volatility. Additionally, ESG-focused funds could gain traction as policymakers grapple with the social costs of AI-driven displacement.

Conclusion

The U.S. labor market's structural slowdown is a product of both policy and technological forces. Trump-era deregulation and AI adoption have created a landscape of opportunity and risk, with the Federal Reserve caught between supporting growth and managing inflation. For 2026, investors must prioritize agility, targeting AI-driven sectors while hedging against labor market polarization and policy uncertainty.