Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT) Market Overview for 2025-11-05

• Price dropped from $0.2772 to $0.2730 but rebounded to close at $0.28.
• Volatility surged with a peak of $0.2803 and a trough of $0.2593.
• Volume spiked significantly at 19:30–20:30 ET, confirming bearish pressure before a late rally.

Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT) opened at $0.2772 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.2803, and a low of $0.2593, closing at $0.28 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. Total 24-hour trading volume was approximately 1,675,388.5 units, with a notional turnover of $447,245.25.

KNCUSDT exhibited a volatile price path over the 24-hour period, with sharp bearish moves followed by consolidation and a late recovery. A notable bearish move occurred from 18:30–19:30 ET with a 2.3% drop to $0.2663, followed by a 3.3% rebound by 23:00 ET. A key support level appeared at $0.2692–0.27, with price testing this zone multiple times before bouncing. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed at 18:30 ET, signaling a risk of further downside, but a strong reversal followed, indicating a possible short-term bottom.

Structure & Formations

Key resistance levels formed around $0.2750–0.2760 and $0.2780–0.2790, with the former showing repeated tests and consolidation. A potential bullish harami was observed between 05:30–06:00 ET, suggesting a short-covering rally. A long lower shadow at 22:00–22:30 ET indicated buying pressure emerging after a sell-off. A doji at 05:45 ET marked a potential exhaustion of bearish momentum. These patterns suggest a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in a bullish manner after 02:00 ET, aligning with the rally. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA remained above the 100-day MA, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias. However, the 200-day MA was below the 100-day, indicating structural bearishness if the price continues to trend lower over the next few weeks.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line after 02:00 ET, confirming the bullish reversal. RSI bottomed near 30 at 20:30 ET, signaling oversold conditions before the rebound. However, RSI has not shown a strong divergence, suggesting the momentum could continue for a short period. The 14-period RSI reached 55 at the close, hinting at a return to balanced territory.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked during the 19:30–20:30 ET window, with the bands widening significantly. Price touched the lower band at 20:30 ET, then surged toward the upper band by 05:00 ET. This bounce suggests a temporary overreaction, with the bands likely to contract as the price stabilizes.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 19:30–20:30 ET, confirming the bearish breakdown, with a volume of over 334,000 units. A smaller but significant rally at 22:00 ET was also supported by strong volume. Notional turnover aligned with these moves, with a peak of $9,537.15 at 19:30 ET. Divergence between price and volume was not observed during the final 4 hours, indicating a coherent move.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the high of $0.2803 to the low of $0.2593, the 23.6% retracement level was around $0.2756, the 38.2% at $0.2730, and the 61.8% at $0.2692. The 38.2% level coincided with the late rally and a key consolidation phase. The 61.8% level appeared to hold as support, with price bouncing off it multiple times. A break below the 61.8% level could signal a deeper correction toward the 78.6% at $0.2636.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent price action on KNCUSDT highlights how candlestick patterns like bearish engulfing and harami can serve as reliable signals for trend changes and reversals. A backtesting strategy based on these patterns could be valuable, particularly if paired with clear entry and exit rules. To proceed, confirmation is needed on the ticker symbol (e.g., “HOLD” vs. “HOLD.P”) and the preferred bearish exit signal (e.g., bearish engulfing or dark cloud cover). Once defined, the strategy can be tested using historical data from 2022–01–01 to today. This would involve identifying pattern dates, defining buy/sell signals, and measuring performance over the specified period.