Kusama/Tether Market Overview – 2025-10-25

• KSMUSDT traded lower with a bearish bias, closing below the 15-minute open.
• Volatility increased mid-day with a sharp decline to 10.42, followed by a partial recovery.
• A long upper shadow in the early session indicates rejection of higher prices.
• Volume and turnover spiked after 22:30 ET as KSMUSDT rallied to 10.67.
• Overbought RSI conditions were followed by a bearish reversal and divergence.

Kusama/Tether (KSMUSDT) opened at $10.53 on 2025-10-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at $10.45 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-25. The pair reached a high of $10.68 and a low of $10.30, with total trading volume of 37,400.37 KSM and a notional turnover of ~$389,800 over the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

KSMUSDT formed a strong bearish structure from 22:30 ET to 01:00 ET, with a sharp move from 10.67 to 10.51. The candlestick pattern during this period included a long upper shadow and multiple bearish engulfing patterns, suggesting resistance around the 10.65–10.68 range. A doji formed near 10.52 during the early morning hours, signaling potential exhaustion in the downward move. A key support level appears to be forming around 10.45–10.49, with price bouncing back from there twice.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, KSMUSDT closed below the 20 and 50-period moving averages, indicating bearish momentum in the short term. The 20-period MA sits at ~10.50 and the 50-period MA at ~10.52. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs are aligned with a bearish bias, suggesting that a longer-term downtrend may persist unless a strong reversal occurs above 10.65–10.68.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative mid-session, confirming a bearish turn in momentum. The RSI peaked at ~70 during the early evening hours but quickly reversed to ~50 by midday the next day, suggesting overbought conditions were followed by a bearish correction. A divergence between price and RSI was observed as price hit new lows while RSI did not, indicating possible exhaustion in the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

KSMUSDT traded within a wide Bollinger Band range, with volatility peaking during the late evening hours as price expanded to the upper band before collapsing. The band width increased from ~0.03 to ~0.30 during the 22:30–01:00 ET period, reflecting heightened uncertainty in the market. Price has since retracted to the lower band, suggesting a potential consolidation phase ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly after 22:30 ET with a large 9,456.245 KSM candle that pushed price to 10.67. This was followed by a rapid reversal and a sell-off into the early hours of 2025-10-25. Notional turnover also increased during this period, reflecting heightened participation. Divergence occurred in the early morning hours as price continued lower with diminishing volume, suggesting reduced conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the 10.30 to 10.68 swing suggest a key 61.8% retracement at ~10.51, which aligns with a recent price rejection. The 38.2% level is at ~10.57, which appears to have held as resistance during the overnight session. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement of the broader 10.30–10.68 move is at ~10.51, reinforcing its significance as a key support level for the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The Doji Star pattern observed in the KSMUSDT pair around 10.52 appears to align with a key 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a potential reversal point. This pattern has historically served as a buy signal when forming at resistance levels, as was the case here. However, while the pattern briefly ignited positive momentum, the price failed to break convincingly above the resistance band, and the move did not sustain. This aligns with the observed divergence in RSI and the lack of follow-through after the volume spike. Thus, the Doji Star may act as a signal for cautious long entries, but traders should be mindful of the bearish trendline and key Fibonacci levels that could limit upside potential.