Kolibri Global Energy’s Tishomingo Field: A High-Conviction Oil-Weighted Growth Catalyst

Kolibri Global Energy’s Tishomingo Field in Oklahoma has emerged as a standout asset in the energy sector, offering a compelling combination of scalable production, robust reserve upside, and a compelling valuation. With a 24% year-over-year increase in production to 3,478 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOEPD) in 2024, the field is now a cornerstone of the company’s growth strategy [1]. This surge is driven by the exceptional performance of the Lovina wells (9-16-1H to 4H), which average 571–643 BOEPD, with oil percentages significantly higher than prior wells. These results underscore the field’s liquids-rich profile and its potential to deliver higher netbacks and slower decline rates [1].

Reserve Upside and Operational Momentum

Kolibri’s 2025 guidance forecasts a 29% to 47% increase in production, targeting 4,500–5,100 BOEPD, supported by a drilling program that includes nine new wells [2]. The company’s proved reserves of 40.2 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE) as of December 2024, with an NPV10 of $534.7 million, reflect a strong foundation for future cash flow [4]. However, the true catalyst lies in the eastern acreage, where the Forguson 17-20-3H well is testing the economics of 3,000 net acres not yet included in reserve reports. This area, with a 46% working interest for Kolibri, is producing 160 BOEPD (115 BOPD) and shares geological similarities with the core field, albeit at a shallower depth [1].

The reserve auditor, NSAI, has identified 52 economically proved drilling locations in the Caney shale, alongside additional probable and possible locations, creating a long runway for development [1]. Furthermore, the T-zone formation—a deeper target—could unlock further growth if initial results from the Forguson well prove favorable [1].

Undervaluation in a High-P/E Sector

Despite these strengths, Kolibri trades at a significant discount to its peers. As of Q3 2025, the stock (KEI.TO) has a P/E ratio of 9.51, well below the S&P 500 Energy Sector’s 16.57 and the sector’s three-year average of 11.8x [2][5]. This undervaluation is particularly striking given the company’s low operating costs, high operating netbacks, and a balance sheet with $5.8 million in Q1 2025 net income—a 72% year-over-year increase [1].

Edison Group’s valuation of $7.50 per share (C$10.10) based on discounted cash flow analysis further reinforces this thesis, suggesting the market is underappreciating Kolibri’s reserve base and operational efficiency [3]. With a market cap of $251 million, the stock offers a compelling entry point for investors seeking exposure to a high-conviction, oil-weighted growth story.

Scalable Production and Strategic Expansion

The company’s drilling program is poised to accelerate in the second half of 2025, with nine new wells expected to significantly boost production and cash flow [5]. The Lovina and Forguson wells, in particular, highlight Kolibri’s ability to optimize well economics through longer lateral lengths and advanced completion techniques. These wells are projected to drive Adjusted EBITDA growth of 32% to 61% in 2025, outpacing production gains [2].

Moreover, the eastern acreage represents a material reserve upside. If the Forguson well’s economics justify further development, Kolibri could add thousands of net acres to its inventory, potentially expanding its proved reserves beyond the current 40.2 MMBOE [1]. This scalability, combined with the field’s low decline rates and high oil content, positions Kolibri as a defensive yet growth-oriented play in the energy sector.

Conclusion

Kolibri Global Energy’s Tishomingo Field is a rare combination of operational excellence, reserve upside, and an attractive valuation. With production growth accelerating, a robust drilling inventory, and a compelling discount to sector multiples, the company is well-positioned to outperform in a cyclical energy market. For investors seeking exposure to a liquids-rich, scalable asset with a strong balance sheet, Kolibri offers a high-conviction opportunity that merits closer attention.

Source:
[1] Kolibri Global Energy Inc. Announces Operations Update [https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250909358747/en/Kolibri-Global-Energy-Inc.-Announces-Operations-Update]
[2] Kolibri Global Energy Inc. Provides 2025 Guidance [https://kolibrienergy.com/kolibri-global-energy-inc-provides-2025-guidance-with-a-forecasted-increase-of-more-than-35-percent-to-adjusted-ebitda-and-more-than-38-percent-to-average-production-over-2024-guidance/]
[3] Kolibri Global Energy — Playing its cards right - Edison Group [https://www.edisongroup.com/research/playing-its-cards-right/33072/]
[4] Kolibri Global Energy Announces a 24% Increase in Production [https://kolibrienergy.com/kolibri-global-energy-announces-a-24-increase-in-production-in-2024-with-record-annual-revenues-and-adjusted-ebitda-and-net-income-of-us18-1-million/]
[5] S&P 500 Energy Sector: current P/E Ratio [https://worldperatio.com/sector/sp-500-energy/]