¿Sigue siendo justificable la carrera de crecimiento de Klarna ante las crecientes preocupaciones por la valoración?

The fintech sector has long been a magnet for speculative capital, but few stories have captured investor imagination-and scrutiny-like Klarna's. The Swedish buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) giant has spent years scaling its global footprint, leveraging aggressive product innovation and U.S. market penetration to drive revenue growth. Yet as its valuation multiples expand, a critical question emerges: Can Klarna's fundamentals justify the optimism embedded in its stock price?

The Allure of Expansion: A Recipe for Scale

Klarna's Q3 2025 results underscore its ability to execute on growth. Revenue surged 26% year-over-year to $903 million, with the U.S. market accounting for a staggering 51% of that increase. This expansion has been fueled by two key products: the Klarna Card, which attracted four million signups in just four months, and the Fair Financing product, which saw gross merchandise volume (GMV) jump 244% year-over-year. These metrics reflect a company adept at capturing consumer demand, particularly in a post-recessionary environment where flexible payment options remain in high demand.

Moreover, Klarna's AI-driven underwriting has improved risk management. Realized credit losses fell to 0.44% of GMV in Q3 2025, a marked improvement from prior periods. This progress suggests the company is refining its ability to balance growth with prudence-a critical factor in an industry historically plagued by lax credit standards.

The Cost of Ambition: Profitability Lags Behind

Despite these gains, Klarna's financials tell a different story. The company posted a net loss of $95 million in Q3 2025, a sharp reversal from the $12 million profit recorded in the same period in 2024. Operating losses also widened, with a $83 million operating (loss) profit compared to $13 million in 2024. The culprit? A "short-term profitability lag" caused by upfront accounting provisions for credit losses, which are recognized before the associated revenue compounds. While management anticipates a $100 million improvement in transaction margin dollars (TMD) in Q4 2025, the path to sustained profitability remains murky.

This disconnect between top-line growth and bottom-line results is further highlighted by Klarna's valuation metrics. The company trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.5x, a relatively modest multiple for a high-growth fintech. However, its trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is negative (-81.08), reflecting ongoing losses, while its forward P/E of 54.95 suggests investors are betting on future earnings recovery. Such a split valuation profile-excitement about growth versus skepticism about profitability-is a double-edged sword.

Valuation Dilemmas: Growth vs. Fundamentals

The core tension for Klarna lies in reconciling its aggressive expansion with its financial underperformance. On one hand, its $11.62 billion market cap implies a belief that it can dominate the BNPL space, particularly as it transitions from a payment provider to a full-fledged digital bank. On the other, its operating losses and reliance on forward-looking guidance raise questions about the durability of its business model.

Consider the math: Klarna's projected Q4 2025 revenue of over $1 billion would represent a 35% sequential increase from Q3, but even if it hits its TMD guidance of $390–$400 million, its gross margin would still trail peers like Affirm and Afterpay. Meanwhile, its P/S ratio, while lower than those of its rivals, is still stretched for a company that has yet to prove it can sustain consistent profits.

The Road Ahead: Can Klarna Justify Its Hype?

Klarna's long-term success will hinge on its ability to monetize its expanding user base without sacrificing risk management. The Klarna Card, which now accounts for 15% of global transactions, offers a promising avenue for cross-selling higher-margin services, such as rewards programs and credit-building tools. Similarly, the explosive growth of Fair Financing-despite its current profitability challenges-signals untapped potential in the small business lending segment.

However, investors must remain wary of the company's reliance on accounting timing differences to mask underlying costs. As Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski noted in a recent earnings call, "The upfront recognition of credit losses creates a near-term drag, but our AI-driven models are reducing long-term risk exposure" according to investor reports. Whether this narrative holds true will depend on the company's ability to scale responsibly while navigating macroeconomic headwinds, such as rising interest rates and tightening credit standards.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Gamble

Klarna's growth runway remains impressive, but its valuation demands a leap of faith. The company's ability to innovate and capture market share is undeniable, yet its financial underperformance-coupled with a valuation that straddles optimism and caution-leaves investors in a precarious position. For now, Klarna appears to be a stock for the patient and the bold: those who believe its AI-driven evolution and U.S. expansion can eventually bridge the gap between market potential and profitability.