Kite/USDC Market Overview for 2025-11-13

Summary
• Kite/USDC traded in a 24-hour range of $0.0813–$0.0885, closing at $0.0815 after opening at $0.0873.
• Momentum remains bearish with RSI indicating oversold conditions and declining volume in late ET hours.
• Volatility expanded in early session, but price consolidation in the final 6 hours shows waning conviction.

Kite/USDC (KITEUSDC) opened at $0.0873 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0815 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was $0.0813 to $0.0885. Total volume was 14,548,524.3 and total turnover was approximately $1,216,995. The session was characterized by a sharp selloff in the middle of the 24-hour period followed by consolidation in the last 6 hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern in the 15-minute timeframe as the session progressed, with the final 3-hour block exhibiting a long lower wick and a narrow range, suggesting a possible short-term bottoming process. Key support levels emerged around $0.0824 and $0.0814, with resistance visible at $0.0836 and $0.0842. A doji appeared at $0.0824 during 04:30–04:45 ET, signaling indecision and potential reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed below the 50-period SMA, forming a bearish crossover. Daily averages showed the 50-EMA at ~$0.0837, 100-EMA at ~$0.0850, and 200-EMA at ~$0.0860—suggesting a medium-term bearish bias. Price is currently trading below all daily EMA lines, reinforcing the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a negative divergence with price in the final 6 hours, as price attempted to rally while the MACD line remained in negative territory. RSI reached oversold territory (below 30) by 09:00–10:00 ET, but failed to generate a strong reversal, suggesting the bearish trend may continue. RSI remains in the lower quadrant, indicating ongoing bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Price spent much of the session near the lower Bollinger Band, with volatility expanding after 00:00 ET before narrowing again in the last 6 hours. This narrowing suggests a potential consolidation phase ahead, possibly leading to a breakout or continuation of the current trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked early in the session, particularly around 00:15–01:00 ET, with a large candle closing at $0.0868 on strong volume of 499,778.2. However, volume decreased sharply after 07:00 ET, with the final 6 hours showing weak accumulation. Notional turnover also declined after the first 5 hours, indicating diminished selling pressure or investor interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.0881 to $0.0813, key levels at 38.2% (~$0.0847) and 61.8% (~$0.0831) were tested and rejected, with current price action forming a potential base near 23.6% (~$0.0823). This suggests that any short-term rebound may face resistance at the 38.2% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

To assess the effectiveness of a momentum-based RSI strategy for Kite/USDC, a backtest using RSI thresholds of 30 (entry) and 70 (exit) could be implemented with 15-minute data from 2022–2025. This approach would aim to capture overbought and oversold conditions, identifying potential trend reversals. Given the recent RSI behavior and volume patterns, such a strategy could offer insights into short-term trading signals. However, due to the lack of prior coverage for the “Harbor Alpha Layering ETF,” this backtest could alternatively be applied to a more liquid and well-covered alternative. Please confirm the correct ticker or provide a custom dataset for further execution.