KinderCare Narrows 2025 Outlook to $2.75B-$2.8B Revenue Amid Lower Occupancy Guidance and Continued B2B Growth.

KinderCare Learning Companies narrowed its 2025 outlook to $2.75B-$2.8B revenue, citing lower occupancy guidance and continued B2B growth. CEO Paul Thompson reported year-over-year growth in revenue and adjusted EPS, despite a more challenging comparison on adjusted EBITDA. He highlighted recent legislative developments, such as the Child Care and Development Block Grant Act, which may impact the company's performance.

KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc. (KinderCare) has revised its 2025 revenue outlook to a range of $2.75 billion to $2.8 billion, citing lower occupancy guidance and continued B2B growth. The company reported year-over-year growth in both revenue and adjusted EPS, despite a more challenging comparison on adjusted EBITDA.

CEO Paul Thompson highlighted recent legislative developments, including the Child Care and Development Block Grant Act, which may impact the company's performance. The act, which was fully funded in the latest federal budget, provides greater certainty to the child care funding environment and supports early child education. KinderCare, with its nationwide network, is well-positioned to benefit from this legislation.

The company's Q2 2025 earnings call revealed that KinderCare's revenue for the quarter was $700 million, a 1.5% increase year-over-year, while earnings per share (EPS) were $0.22, falling short of the forecasted $0.26. The stock experienced a slight decline in aftermarket trading following the earnings announcement, closing at $9.61.

Looking ahead, KinderCare projects 2025 revenue between $2.75 billion and $2.8 billion, with adjusted EBITDA ranging from $310 million to $320 million. The company anticipates adjusted EPS to be between $0.77 and $0.82, despite expected occupancy declines of 1-1.5% for the year.

The company's performance was attributed to solid demand for childcare services, although certain local market-specific issues presented enrollment challenges. Executive commentary emphasized the company's focus on improving center-level performance and remaining confident in its long-term growth strategy.

References:
[1] https://seekingalpha.com/news/4484389-kindercare-narrows-2025-outlook-to-2_75b-2_8b-revenue-as-occupancy-guidance-lowered-and-b2b
[2] https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-kindercare-learning-misses-q2-2025-expectations-93CH-4186898