Kestra Medical (KMTS) Plummets 13% Amid Earnings Surprise—What Investors Need to Know

• KMTS stock collapses 12.7% intraday to $14.22 after Q4/FY25 earnings report
• Missed EPS estimates by $1.55 but beat revenue by $1.16M with 115% annual revenue growth
• 4 Wall Street firms maintain 'Buy' ratings with median $28 price target vs. current $14.22
• Shares trade at 52W low of $13.25 after hitting $16.07 open, marking a $2.85 range today

Kestra Medical's stock is in freefall today as investors digest mixed financials that highlight execution progress but stark profitability challenges. The 13% drop to 52-week lows underscores a market recalibration after aggressive IPO-fueled growth targets.

Earnings Miss vs. Margin Gains Sparks Profitability Concerns
KMTS's stock rout stems from a dramatic EPS miss that overshadowed revenue growth and margin improvements. While FY25 revenue soared 115% to $59.8M with 72% prescription growth for its cardiac recovery system, the -$2.09 EPS missed consensus by $1.55 due to $130.6M in operating expenses. Despite gross margin expanding from 1.3% to 40.5%, the company's GAAP net loss widened to $113.8M as share-based compensation and IPO costs surged. Investors appear prioritizing profit path clarity over top-line momentum in this high-growth medtech sector.

Technical Divergence and Key Support Levels Signal Buying Opportunity
• Bollinger Bands: Current price ($14.22) near lower bound ($13.98) with upper at $18.04
• RSI: 41.04 indicates oversold conditions below 50
• 30-day moving average: $17.28 (resistance)
• MACD: Bullish crossover imminent with histogram rising to 0.184

Traders should focus on $13.25 (52W low) support and $17.28 30DMA resistance. The RSI oversold reading suggests a potential bounce toward $16.50. While options data is unavailable, the technicals imply a buying opportunity if the stock holds $13.25. Aggressive investors could layer into dips using limit orders below $14.00 while watching for volume confirmation on bounces.

Options Note: No contracts available for analysis. Monitor weekly options expirations for volatility spikes near key levels.

Backtest Kestra Medical Stock Performance
The backtest of KMTS's performance after a -13% intraday plunge reveals a mixed outlook with varying win rates and returns over different time frames. While the 3-day win rate is relatively high at 39.58%, the 10-day win rate drops to 35.42% and the 30-day win rate further decreases to 25%. This suggests that although KMTS has a higher probability of recovery in the short term, the likelihood of positive returns decreases as the time horizon extends.

Hold the Bottom or Fade the Drop? Kestra's Profit Crossroads
Kestra's stock now faces a critical test at its 52-week low as investors weigh its 115% revenue growth against $113M losses. The $13.25 support level is now a liquidity trap - if breached, the next target is $10.00. Conversely, a close above $16.00 could signal a technical rebound. With median analyst targets at $28 and FY26 guidance of $85M revenue, this is a stock to watch for catalysts like margin expansion or cost controls. Monitor sector leader Medtronic (MDT) which dipped 0.07% today, showing broader medtech caution. Action: Buy the dip to $13.50 with stops below $13.25 for a potential $16.50 recovery swing.