KazMunayGas sees 2026 oil output at 26.4M tons

KazMunayGas sees 2026 oil output at 26.4M tons

Kazakhstan’s 2026 Oil Output Forecasts and Strategic Developments

Kazakhstan’s state oil and gas company, KazMunayGas (KMG), has outlined expectations for oil production in 2026, with quarterly output projected at 26.4 million tons for the first quarter, aligning with the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) forecast of 2.16 million barrels per day (mb/d) for the same period. This figure reflects Kazakhstan’s broader ambition to stabilize and expand its oil production amid planned maintenance at major fields and growing export infrastructure.

The government has set a target of surpassing 100 million tons of annual oil production starting in 2026, up from 96.2 million tons projected for 2025. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov noted that maintenance at key fields like Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan could temporarily impact output, though these projects remain central to long-term growth. KMG, meanwhile, reported a 10% year-on-year increase in oil and condensate production through September 2025, reaching 19.84 million tons.

A key component of Kazakhstan’s strategy involves expanding oil exports via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. In 2025, the country transported 923,000 tons of oil through the pipeline in the first eight months, with a target of 1.2 million tons by year-end. A 2022 agreement between KMG and Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR) aims to gradually increase BTC transit to 2.2 million tons annually, reflecting regional cooperation in energy logistics.

KMG also emphasized exploration and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) to sustain production. The company is advancing 13 exploration projects, including partnerships with international firms like Eni and Lukoil, and aims to boost reserves by 200 million tons in the short term. Additionally, Kazakhstan’s refining strategy seeks to meet domestic fuel demand and expand petrochemical exports, with a $15 billion roadmap targeting projects like a polyethylene plant and carbamide production.

While the IEA predicts steady annual output of 2.15–2.16 mb/d in 2026, the government’s focus on infrastructure, exploration, and diversification underscores its commitment to maintaining oil production at 100 million tons annually for the foreseeable future.