Kaspi.kz Q1 2025: Navigating Contradictions in Macro Trends, Growth Strategies, and Financial Guidance

Macro Environment and Currency Impact, Interest Rate Impact on Growth and Guidance, Payment Take Rates and Growth Strategy, Hepsiburada Acquisition and Dividend Plans, Impact of Higher Interest Rates on Funding Costs and Lending Strategy are the key contradictions discussed in Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz's latest 2025Q1 earnings call.



Strong Financial Performance:
- Kaspi.kz reported revenue growth of 21% and net income growth of 16% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2025.
- The company's payments platform experienced a 16% revenue growth, with a 21% increase in transaction processing volume (TPV) year-on-year.
- The growth was driven by strong demand across payments, e-commerce, and fintech platforms, as well as successful product launches and market expansion.

Impact of Smartphone Import Regulations:
- A noticeable decline in smartphone sales due to Kazakh government regulations led to a temporary fall-off in demand, affecting e-commerce GMV.
- The introduction of requirements to register smartphones increased prices significantly, leading to a temporary slowdown in demand, which is estimated to have impacted GMV growth by approximately 7 percentage points.
- This regulatory change is expected to be short-term, with demand normalization and potential catch-up effects anticipated in the second half of the year.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Interest Rates:
- Macroeconomic factors such as lower oil prices and currency volatility are impacting spending in Kazakhstan, leading to some uncertainty in high-ticket discretionary transactions.
- Higher interest rates have increased funding costs, potentially impacting profitability in the near term. However, Kaspi.kz anticipates long-term benefits from this high-interest environment.
- The company has been strategic in launching high-interest deposit products, prioritizing customer acquisition to drive future transactions and funding opportunities.

Turkish Expansion and Rabobank Acquisition:
- Kaspi.kz is progressing with the acquisition of Rabobank in Turkey, expected to be completed in the second half of 2025.
- The acquisition aims to facilitate expansion and innovation in fintech products, leveraging the financial strength gained from the successful euro bond fundraising.
- The integration plans involve introducing high-quality financial services, focusing on consumer experience and sustainable growth.