Kamino Finance/Tether Market Overview

• Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) closed near intraday lows, showing bearish pressure with a 0.0631–0.0632 range.
• Volatility spiked during the 22:15–04:45 ET window, pushing the pair to a 0.0663 high before a sharp correction.
• Turnover increased by ~400% during the late-night surge, though prices failed to hold above 0.0650.
• A key support level appears near 0.0631–0.0633, with a 50-period MA (15-min) currently at 0.0633.
• RSI (14) shows oversold conditions for part of the session, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at 0.06298 on 2025-10-26 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 0.06738 before closing at 0.0642 at 12:00 ET the following day. Total 24-hour volume was 60,942,613.0 with a notional turnover of $3,832,220.71. The pair has shown a volatile 24-hour session, marked by sharp intraday highs and a consolidation phase toward the lower end of the range.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a key bullish engulfing pattern at 0.0633, which was followed by a strong rebound. This was later invalidated by a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.06575, signaling a possible shift in momentum. A doji formed near 0.0649, indicating indecision and potential support. Strong resistance appears to be forming at 0.0658 and above, with support consolidating around 0.0631–0.0634. The 0.0642 level may act as a psychological floor for the coming session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period MA is at 0.0640 and the 50-period MA at 0.0633. The 50-period line is currently acting as a dynamic support level, while the 20-period MA is trending higher, indicating potential for a near-term rebound. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 0.0637, and the 200-period MA at 0.0629. The price is above both, suggesting a slight bullish bias, though caution is warranted given the recent volatility.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has shown a bearish crossover and remains in negative territory for much of the session, with a low point at -0.00006. The histogram has remained negative until a brief positive divergence late in the session. RSI dipped into oversold territory multiple times, peaking at 30 during the late-night sell-off, suggesting a potential bounce. However, a strong reversal is unlikely without a break above the 50-level on RSI.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have seen a notable expansion during the late-night surge, with the price reaching the upper band at 0.0663 before a sharp decline. The recent pullback has brought the price near the lower band, indicating a potential oversold condition. The 20-period BB width is currently elevated, signaling heightened volatility. A sustained move above the midline could suggest a resumption of the upward trend, while a breakdown of the lower band may reinforce bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the 22:15–04:45 ET window, with a total of ~16.68 million KMNO traded during the most active 15-minute interval. This volume surge coincided with a 10% price increase, but failed to confirm a bullish breakout. Conversely, the subsequent bearish move was supported by higher volume, indicating stronger conviction. Notional turnover reached $401,992 in one 15-minute period, a ~400% increase from the session’s low-volume periods, highlighting the sharp directional shift.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the intraday high of 0.06738 and the low of 0.06285, key levels include 38.2% at 0.0653, 50.0% at 0.0651, and 61.8% at 0.0649. The price currently sits slightly below the 38.2% level at 0.0642, suggesting that a test of the 61.8% retrace at 0.0649 may occur in the next 24 hours. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level remains a critical area to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed RSI divergence and Fibonacci retracement levels, a backtest strategy could be designed to exploit potential short-term bounces in KMNOUSDT. A long bias may be considered on a break above the 50-period MA (15-min), with a stop loss below 0.0631 and a target at 0.0650–0.0653. A short position could be triggered on a retest of 0.0631–0.0632, with a stop above 0.0635 and a target at 0.0627–0.0628. The strategy would benefit from real-time RSI and MACD confirmation, but further validation is needed with the correct symbol and exchange data.