Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) Market Overview for 2025-10-12

• Price dropped from 0.06123 to 0.05608 on strong bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded in the first half of the session, followed by consolidation.
• Volume spiked to 3.0M at 15:00 ET, aligning with a sharp 5.5% price rebound.
• RSI fell into oversold territory before rebounding, suggesting potential short-covering.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the 15:00 ET rally, signaling a potential breakout.

Kamino Finance/Tether (KMNOUSDT) opened at 0.06106 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.05608 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 0.06131 and a low of 0.05480. Total traded volume reached 41,484,206 KMNO, and notional turnover totaled 2,386.3 USDT.

The 24-hour price action showed a strong bearish bias with a sharp decline over the first 12 hours, punctuated by a bearish engulfing pattern and a key support level at 0.0570. This support level was briefly tested twice before the price broke through on heavy volume. A potential resistance at 0.0595 emerged at the end of the session, with a bullish engulfing candle suggesting a short-term rebound. On the 15-minute chart, key support levels at 0.0570 and 0.0555, and resistance levels at 0.0595 and 0.0610 were clearly defined, with the latter being rejected three times over the past 24 hours.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicated a deep bearish divergence: the 20-period and 50-period EMAs were well below the price, with the 50-period EMA falling further as the trend continued. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period SMAs were aligned lower, reinforcing the bearish momentum and lack of upward bias. A potential short-term reversal could be triggered if price retests the 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart without breaking the 0.0570 level.

MACD showed a strong bearish crossover with the histogram expanding as the downtrend accelerated. RSI fell below 30 twice, indicating oversold conditions but failed to trigger a sustained reversal. Bollinger Bands showed a clear expansion during the initial selloff, followed by a period of contraction as the price consolidated near 0.0555. This tightening could precede a breakout, either bullish or bearish, depending on volume confirmation. Notably, the price closed near the upper band at 15:00 ET after a volume surge, suggesting potential short-term optimism.

Volume and turnover spiked at 15:00 ET, with 3.0M KMNO traded and a turnover of 170.8 USDT, signaling a sharp but short-lived reversal attempt. The divergence between volume and price during the 15:00–16:00 ET period suggests a possible false break or accumulation ahead of a larger move. Investors should monitor volume during the next few hours to confirm the sustainability of the rebound.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 15-minute chart highlighted a 61.8% retracement level at 0.0580, which was not reached due to the sharp correction. However, a 38.2% level at 0.0575 was tested briefly but rejected, suggesting further bearish potential. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level from the recent swing high is at 0.0582, and the 61.8% at 0.0558 is currently being tested. A breakdown of 0.0558 could accelerate the bearish trend.

The price may test 0.0548 as the next significant support level in the next 24 hours, with the potential for a further 7-8% decline. A sustained close above 0.0570 could indicate a reversal in the near-term trend, but the dominant bearish momentum remains a risk to upward movement.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish divergence in the 15-minute MACD and the sustained oversold RSI readings without a strong reversal, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry at the 0.0570 level, with a stop-loss placed above the 0.0595 resistance. A take-profit target could be placed at 0.0548, reflecting the next key support level. This strategy would align with the current bearish momentum, leveraging the tight Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci retracement levels as confirmation of the trade setup.