Kalshi Tops Polymarket in US Prediction Market Trading Volumes Amid Sports Betting Boom

Kalshi has surpassed Polymarket in trading volumes, driven by a booming sports betting market in the US. Kalshi's focus on football has contributed to its success, accounting for over 70% of its trading volume. Prediction markets are expanding into sports betting, with Kalshi and Polymarket competing for market share. Kalshi's lead may be challenged as Polymarket prepares to enter the US market with its CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange. The US sports betting industry is expected to reach $39 billion by 2030.

Prediction markets have experienced a surge in activity, with Kalshi emerging as the dominant player. According to Dune data, Kalshi's market share jumped from 5% at the start of 2025 to over 60% by September Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket as NFL Season Fuels $500 Million Prediction Market Surge^[1]. The platform's focus on sports betting, particularly football, has been a significant driver of this growth. Weekly trading volumes soared to over $500 million following the NFL season kickoff, rivaling the levels typically seen during US elections Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket as NFL Season Fuels $500 Million Prediction Market Surge^[1].

Kalshi's partnership with Robinhood in March introduced retail-friendly prediction markets around pro and college football, accelerating adoption Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket as NFL Season Fuels $500 Million Prediction Market Surge^[1]. The NFL effect was decisive, with Kalshi's weekly volume matching levels typically seen in presidential election years by the first week of the season Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket as NFL Season Fuels $500 Million Prediction Market Surge^[1]. "Kalshi has done $441 million of volume since the NFL kickoff. NFL week 1 is equal to a US election. Probably nothing," Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour shared on X (Twitter) Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket as NFL Season Fuels $500 Million Prediction Market Surge^[1].

Meanwhile, Polymarket is making headway in the American market following regulatory approval with the CFTC. The platform has been given the green light to go live in the USA by the CFTC, which could put it directly competing with Kalshi in its home market Online sportsbooks look to get back on track with Kalshi and Polymarket breathing down their neck^[2]. However, Kalshi is currently enjoying one of its strongest months in nearly a year, reporting $1.3 billion in trading volume in September, surpassing Polymarket’s $773 million mid-month tally Online sportsbooks look to get back on track with Kalshi and Polymarket breathing down their neck^[2].

Both companies are preparing new funding rounds, with Polymarket's valuation at $9–10 billion and Kalshi's near $5 billion Online sportsbooks look to get back on track with Kalshi and Polymarket breathing down their neck^[2]. The competition between the two platforms shows diverging strategies. Kalshi, operating as a CFTC-authorized exchange, has capitalized on regulated event-based contract trading in the US, while Polymarket has historically catered to international users through blockchain-based markets but is expanding in the US following its acquisition of the regulated exchange QCX Polymarket Lures Bettors With Highest 4% Yield Amid Kalshi’s Weekly Volume Surge^[3].

The US sports betting industry is expected to reach $39 billion by 2030 Online sportsbooks look to get back on track with Kalshi and Polymarket breathing down their neck^[2], indicating a significant growth opportunity for prediction markets. As Kalshi continues to dominate in weekly volume, Polymarket's entry into the US market may pose a challenge to its lead. However, Kalshi's recent partnerships with Solana and Base suggest it is preparing to bridge the crypto-native audience, further solidifying its position in the market Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket as NFL Season Fuels $500 Million Prediction Market Surge^[1].