Rollo de Kalshi en el cuarto trimestre de 2025: la redefinición de los puntos de referencia del volumen de negociación en los mercados predictivos

The rise of predictive markets has introduced a new frontier in financial innovation, blending digital assets with real-world event outcomes. At the forefront of this movement is Kalshi, a regulated U.S. prediction market platform that has captured headlines with its unprecedented trading volumes in Q4 2025. As the platform navigates a rapidly evolving landscape, its performance offers critical insights into the future of event-based trading and the broader adoption of blockchain-enabled financial instruments.

Trading Volume Milestones: A New Era for Event-Based Markets

Kalshi's Q4 2025 performance has shattered previous benchmarks, driven by surges in sports-related trading. During the opening weekend of the 2025 NFL season, the platform recorded $441 million in trades, eclipsing the prior record of $312 million set during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. This momentum continued into September, with weekend trading volumes hitting $260 million and $275 million on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. By December 2025, Kalshi's weekly trading volume had reached $1.5 billion, a figure that outpaced its October 2025 record of $4.39 billion.

The platform's dominance in sports betting is particularly striking. In December 2025, 98% of Kalshi's $538 million in trading volume involved sports contracts, with over 90% tied to football-related events. This specialization has positioned Kalshi as a go-to venue for retail and institutional investors seeking liquidity in high-impact, short-term outcomes.

Transaction Growth and Projections: A Trajectory for Record-Breaking Activity

Beyond raw trading volumes, Kalshi's transaction metrics underscore its explosive growth. As of November 26, 2025, the platform had processed 22 million transactions for the month of November 2025. By December 23, 2025, it had already achieved 18.5 million transactions-84% of November's total-in just 23 days. If this pace continues, Kalshi is projected to surpass 25 million transactions in December 2025, potentially concluding 2025 with over 100 million all-time transactions.

This trajectory is further amplified by Kalshi's leadership in open interest. On December 21, 2025, the platform reported $331 million in open interest, accounting for nearly 46% of the total across all prediction market platforms. Such figures highlight Kalshi's ability to attract and retain liquidity, a critical factor in sustaining high trading volumes.

Funding and Expansion: A $11 Billion Valuation and Strategic Tailwinds

Kalshi's rapid ascent has been fueled by robust investor confidence. In November 2025, the platform secured $1 billion in funding at a $11 billion valuation, a testament to its market position and growth potential. This capital infusion is expected to accelerate product development, regulatory compliance efforts, and strategic partnerships.

Key tailwinds include integrations with platforms like PrizePicks and Solana, which enhance liquidity and user access. Additionally, Kalshi's lobbying efforts-exceeding $190,000 in New York and other states-underscore its commitment to expanding its regulatory footprint. A potential listing on Coinbase could further democratize access to Kalshi's markets, attracting a broader investor base.

Challenges and Competition: Navigating a Crowded Landscape

Despite its dominance, Kalshi faces headwinds. Polymarket, its primary rival, reported $3.5 billion in Q3 2025 trading volume, while traditional sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings continue to innovate in event-based betting. However, Kalshi's regulated framework and blockchain-native infrastructure provide a unique value proposition, particularly as institutional investors seek transparency and compliance in speculative markets.

Conclusion: A Paradigm Shift in Predictive Markets

Kalshi's Q4 2025 performance signals a paradigm shift in how markets price real-world events. With trading volumes and transaction counts far outpacing historical benchmarks, the platform is redefining the boundaries of event-based derivatives. For investors, Kalshi represents not just a high-growth opportunity but a glimpse into the future of decentralized, regulated financial markets. As the prediction market space matures, Kalshi's ability to sustain its momentum will hinge on its capacity to innovate, scale, and navigate regulatory and competitive pressures.