KAITO/Bitcoin Market Overview for October 3, 2025

• KAITO/Bitcoin closed near session lows amid bearish momentum and subdued volume.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions and weakening bullish sentiment.
• Volatility appears to be contracting, suggesting potential for a breakout.
• Price tested and failed at 1.184e-05, a key Fibonacci and psychological level.

KAITO/Bitcoin (KAITOBTC) opened at 1.204e-05 on October 2, 2025, touched a high of 1.289e-05, and closed at 1.181e-05 on October 3, 2025. Total volume was 32,175.3 units, and notional turnover amounted to 3.736 BTC over the 24-hour period. The pair has shown a bearish bias with a breakdown of key support levels and minimal follow-through buying.

Structure & Formations

Price opened with a neutral doji at 1.204e-05 before a strong bearish candle formed at 1.212e-05 to 1.199e-05. A large-volume candle at 1.186e-05 to 1.205e-05 marked a failed attempt at recovery. Later, a breakdown below 1.184e-05 confirmed bearish sentiment. Psychological support at 1.18e-05 and Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.178e-05 were tested but not held, suggesting further downside is probable.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20SMA and 50SMA, reinforcing the bearish tilt. Daily chart MAs (50D, 100D, 200D) are not provided but are typically key for longer-term positioning. The current 15-minute structure suggests a continuation of short-term bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed bearish divergence and a negative crossover, aligning with price weakness. RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30 but has not shown a strong bounce, suggesting a lack of near-term buying interest. Momentum indicators appear to confirm the bearish price action.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained relatively low for much of the day, with price hovering near the lower band on the 15-minute chart, especially after the breakdown below 1.184e-05. The Bollinger Band contraction indicates a potential for a breakout either to the downside or a retest of key resistance. Price remains well below the mid-band, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 19:30–19:45 ET session (1.186e-05 to 1.205e-05) and again during the 11:45–12:00 ET session (1.171e-05 to 1.181e-05). However, turnover did not confirm a strong bullish conviction, with much of the buying occurring during consolidation phases. Divergence between price and turnover suggests a lack of conviction in current bullish attempts.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings suggest price found rejection at the 61.8% level (1.178e-05), a critical Fibonacci level. Daily retracements from prior swings are not provided but are typically used for higher-timeframe positioning. The failure to hold 1.184e-05—part of the daily Fibonacci structure—indicates a possible continuation of the bearish phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent breakdown and bearish confirmation from volume and momentum indicators, a short-term sell bias is warranted. A backtesting strategy could be built around shorting on breakouts below key Fibonacci and psychological levels, with tight stop-losses just above 1.184e-05 and 1.186e-05. A trailing stop could be placed beneath each closed short candle to protect gains. The RSI and MACD divergence could also be used as exit triggers. This approach would align with the observed price behavior and could be optimized using 15-minute data and volume confirmation.