Kaia/Tether (KAIAUSDT) Market Overview for 2025-10-11

• KAIAUSDT opens at $0.1351 and closes at $0.1094, dropping -19.1% over 24 hours.
• Price action shows a sharp sell-off from $0.1358 to as low as $0.0464, indicating strong bearish pressure.
• RSI and MACD confirm oversold conditions near the 24-hour low, signaling potential short-term reversal.
• Volatility peaks at $0.1301–$0.0464 (21.3% range) with a volume spike of 2.8M, but price remains in a downtrend.
• Bollinger Bands contract after 21:00 ET, followed by a sharp move below the 20-period lower band.

Kaia/Tether (KAIAUSDT) opened at $0.1351 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1094 by 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was $0.1358 high to $0.0464 low, with total volume of 113,839,402.5 and notional turnover of $11,818,951.9. The pair experienced a sharp bearish correction, with significant momentum and volatility evident in the candlestick pattern.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a strong bearish trend with a notable breakdown below $0.1274 in the early evening (ET). A key support level appears at $0.1033, where price bounced multiple times before resuming the downtrend. A long-legged doji formed near $0.1101 in the morning, signaling indecision and potential reversal. The formation of engulfing patterns and bearish hammers suggests continued pressure to the downside, with a likely test of $0.0907.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a steep downward slope, reflecting the strong bearish momentum. The price is well below both, reinforcing the downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is likely near $0.130–$0.132, while the 200-period MA may be near $0.135–$0.140. Price remains far below these averages, suggesting the bearish bias is well entrenched for the short to medium term.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish early in the downturn, with a strong negative crossover confirming the trend. RSI reached an oversold level near 20 at the 24-hour low, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, the divergence between price and RSI strength is not significant enough to confirm a reversal yet. The momentum remains bearish, though the RSI reading may signal a minor pullback into the near future.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was extremely high during the sharp selloff from $0.1358 to $0.0464. Bollinger Bands expanded sharply during this period, then began to contract after 21:00 ET, indicating a potential slowdown in momentum. Price closed below the 20-period lower band on the 15-minute chart, reinforcing the bearish trend. The current price of $0.1094 sits near the lower band, suggesting a possible continuation of the decline unless the bands expand again.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred at 19:30 ET with 2.8 million KAIA traded, during the sharp drop to $0.0464. This was followed by a smaller but consistent volume during the bounce attempt at $0.1036. Notional turnover also peaked during the selloff, confirming the strength of bearish sentiment. A divergence between volume and price strength was not observed, so the selloff appears confirmed by strong bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the major swing from $0.1358 to $0.0464, key levels include $0.1086 (61.8%), $0.1157 (50%), and $0.1229 (38.2%). The price found some temporary support at $0.1033–$0.1064, aligning with the 61.8% level. The next potential target for further bearish movement could be $0.0907 (38.2% of the rebound), with $0.0790 as a deeper target level. A failure to hold $0.0907 could trigger a retest of the 2025-10-10 low of $0.0464.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a break of the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, coupled with a RSI below 30 and a negative MACD crossover. This entry method was confirmed by the price action on 2025-10-11, where a breakdown below the 20-period MA was accompanied by bearish momentum. A stop-loss could be placed at the most recent swing high, and a take-profit level could be aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the downtrend. This strategy may offer a high-probability trade setup in a trending bearish market.