JUVUSDC Market Overview for 24-Hour Period Ending 2025-10-11

• The pair dropped from a morning high of 1.16 to close at 0.911, showing a strong bearish bias.
• A massive sell-off occurred around 21:30 ET with price falling to 0.72 amid high volume.
• The RSI reached oversold levels, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded dramatically in the 24-hour period, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• Volume spiked during the selloff but has remained subdued in the final hours.

The Juventus Fan Token/USDC (JUVUSDC) pair opened at 1.093 on October 10, reached a high of 1.16, and fell to a low of 0.715 before closing at 0.911 as of 12:00 ET October 11. Total volume reached 655,833.95 with a notional turnover of $603,552. The price action over the past 24 hours reflects a sharp bearish breakdown followed by a tentative stabilization.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern around the 0.908 level and a large bearish harami pattern from 21:30 to 22:00 ET, indicating strong seller control. Key support levels appear to have formed near 0.83–0.86 and at 0.715, where price bottomed. Resistance remains at 0.908 and 0.92–0.93. A potential bullish reversal pattern (piercing line) emerged near the 0.92–0.93 level, suggesting a short-term bounce may occur.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended lower, reflecting continued bearish momentum. The 200-period moving average on the daily chart sits above 1.15, indicating a broader bearish bias for the pair. The price remains well below its key MAs, reinforcing the downward pressure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed bearish divergence with the price, as it declined even during minor rallies. The RSI has entered the oversold territory (below 30) around 0.891, indicating the pair may be due for a short-term corrective bounce. However, without a convincing move above 0.92–0.93, the bearish outlook remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands experienced a sharp expansion during the selloff, particularly between 21:30 and 22:30 ET. Price briefly bottomed near the lower band at 0.715, indicating a potential reversal. Since then, the bands have started to contract slightly, signaling a potential consolidation phase. Price has remained in the lower half of the bands, underscoring bearish sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp sell-off, peaking at 65,583.39 with a notional value of $59,000. This suggests strong bearish conviction. In contrast, volume has remained muted during the consolidation phase, which could indicate a lack of follow-through buying. The price/turnover divergence in the final hours suggests the market is waiting for a catalyst to break out or consolidate.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 1.16–0.715 swing, key levels include 0.93 (38.2%) and 0.86 (61.8%). Price has already retested 0.93 and may find support at 0.86 if the trend continues. On the 15-minute chart, retracements for the 0.93–0.891 swing suggest potential support at 0.91 and 0.906, where price has already found some buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposes a mean-reversion approach based on RSI and Bollinger Band interactions. It suggests entering long positions when RSI dips below 30 and price approaches the lower Bollinger Band, with a stop-loss just below the recent swing low. Given the recent RSI oversold reading and price touching the lower band near 0.715, the pair appears to meet the entry criteria. However, confirmation above 0.92–0.93 would be necessary to validate the setup and ensure risk remains manageable.