Jumia Technologies (JMIA) Surges 21.65% on RBC Upgrade, Reaches 2025 High

Jumia Technologies (JMIA) surged 21.65% on Monday, reaching its highest level since September 2025, with an intraday gain of 26.35%. The rally reflects renewed investor confidence in the African e-commerce giant’s strategic initiatives and operational progress.

A key catalyst was RBC analyst Brad Erickson’s upgrade of the stock, raising its price target from $6.50 to $15 per share. Erickson highlighted Jumia’s potential for revenue growth and cost reductions, citing easing currency pressures in key markets and improved leverage over Chinese sellers. The analyst’s optimism underscores the company’s proximity to EBITDA profitability, with management projecting a turnaround by late 2026.

Jumia’s operational efficiency efforts have gained traction, including warehouse consolidations in Nigeria, Ghana, Ivory Coast, and Egypt. While short-term fulfillment costs rose, CEO Francis Dufay emphasized long-term benefits such as reduced delivery times and expanded product availability. A new 6,000-square-meter warehouse in Ghana exemplifies the company’s focus on logistics infrastructure to drive scalability.

Expansion into underserved regions outside major urban centers has also bolstered growth. Dufay noted a 22% year-over-year increase in orders from upcountry Nigeria, despite macroeconomic challenges. By offering low-cost products aligned with declining purchasing power, Jumia has strengthened its market position in these areas, reinforcing its resilience in volatile economic conditions.

Strategic shutdowns of unprofitable operations in Tunisia and South Africa further streamlined the business. Proceeds from a secondary offering funded these exits, allowing Jumia to reallocate resources to high-growth markets. The company’s liquidity remains robust, with $164.6 million in cash and a reduced cash burn rate, providing flexibility for future initiatives.

Macroeconomic dynamics, including eased currency pressures and potential U.S. policy shifts, could further benefit Jumia. Management remains cautious but confident, noting structural adjustments in African economies have limited downside risks. Strengthened gross margins and disciplined marketing spend also highlight the company’s financial discipline as it navigates its “prove-it” year in 2025.