JPMorgan Upgrades Coinbase to Overweight, Citing $12B Value Potential in Blockchain, Stablecoin Strategies

JPMorgan Chase & Co. has upgraded Coinbase Global Inc. to "overweight" from "neutral," raising its price target to $404 per share, citing the crypto exchange's potential to unlock billions in value through its Base layer-2 blockchain and USDC monetization strategies, according to a Coindesk report. The bank estimates that a token tied to Coinbase's Base network could create a $12 billion to $34 billion market opportunity, with Coinbase retaining up to $12 billion in equity value, per The Block analysis. The move reflects growing confidence in Coinbase's ability to capitalize on its expanding infrastructure and stablecoin ecosystem amid stabilizing market dynamics, as detailed in Coinotag coverage.

The bank highlighted two primary catalysts for its upgraded outlook. First, the potential launch of a Base token—a native token for Coinbase's Ethereum-based Layer 2 network—could equitize the network's growth, which has already attracted over $5 billion in total value locked and 9 million daily transactions, according to an Investor Empires report. JPMorgan analysts project that a token could accelerate developer adoption, community engagement, and infrastructure development, positioning Base as a key revenue driver, as noted in a Cryptodnes report. Second, changes to Coinbase's USDC rewards program, which currently distributes most of its $400 million annual interest earnings to users, could boost annual earnings by $374 million if payouts are limited to Coinbase One subscribers, per a Yahoo Finance report.

Coinbase's shares surged nearly 9% to $353 following the upgrade, marking a 42% year-to-date gain and pushing its market capitalization to $90.6 billion, Investor Empires reported. JPMorgan values the stock at 50 times projected 2027 earnings, factoring in potential revenue from the Base token and USDC yield segmentation. The bank's $404 price target implies a 15% upside from current levels and aligns with Coinbase's recent operational milestones, including a $25 million investment to revive a popular crypto podcast and regulatory progress like the GENIUS Act, as Investor Empires noted.

While competition from decentralized exchanges (DEXs) remains a risk, JPMorgan noted that market share between DEXs and centralized exchanges has stabilized, with Coinbase's integrated model—spanning brokerage, market making, and custody—positioning it to maintain profitability even amid fee pressures, Coindesk reported. The bank also emphasized Coinbase's strategic focus on expanding its Base-integrated DEX features to hedge against decentralized trading growth, which now accounts for 25% of total spot crypto volume, The Block reported.

Coinbase is set to report third-quarter earnings on October 30, with analysts expecting $1.06 per share in profits, a 71% increase from the prior year, Investor Empires reported. The firm's upcoming results will be a key test of its ability to translate infrastructure growth into sustained revenue, particularly as it navigates a regulatory landscape increasingly defined by federal oversight and stablecoin clarity.