El cálculo de la stablecoin de JPMorgan: un mercado de 600 mil millones de dólares, no una amenaza de 6.6 billones de dólares.

The stablecoin market has hit a new plateau, but its scale and purpose are often misunderstood. In October, the total market capitalization surged to $308 billion, marking a fresh all-time high and the 25th consecutive month of growth. That expansion was not a sprint but a sustained climb, with the market growing 49% in 2025 alone. This momentum has drawn a range of projections, from the most bullish calls of $2 trillion to $4 trillion to a more measured view from Wall Street. JPMorgan Chase, the largest U.S. bank by assets, projects the stablecoin supply could reach $500 billion to $600 billion by 2028. This gap between hype and bank calculus is instructive.

The key to understanding this divergence lies in the market's fundamental driver. JPMorgan's analysis is clear: Stablecoin demand is still primarily a crypto-market story, not a payments story. The vast majority of stablecoin use stems from their role as digital cash or collateral within the crypto ecosystem. This includes facilitating crypto trading, derivatives trading, and DeFi lending and borrowing. The evidence supports this, showing that trading volume in stablecoin pairs on centralized exchanges hit $2.08 trillion in late October. The market's growth has been led by established players like Tether's USDT, which commands a 59.4% market share, and Circle's USDC, both deeply embedded in crypto finance.

This reality check separates the hype from the structural assessment. While stablecoins are often framed as the future of cross-border payments, their current explosive growth is a function of the crypto economy's own expansion. The demand is for liquidity and collateral in a volatile, derivatives-heavy market, not for replacing traditional payment rails. JPMorgan's projection, therefore, is not a downbeat forecast but a grounded recognition of the market's actual economic engine.

The Regulatory Battlefield and Banking Concerns

The regulatory landscape for stablecoins is now defined by a clear, government-sanctioned framework, but the underlying tension between innovation and the protection of traditional banking remains acute. The landmark GENIUS Act was signed into law in July 2025, creating the first federal regulatory structure for these assets. Its explicit purpose is to provide clarity and address systemic risks, but it also embeds a critical safeguard: the law explicitly prohibits interest payments on these government-sanctioned stablecoins. This prohibition is the linchpin of the banking industry's primary defense, designed to prevent stablecoins from becoming a yield magnet that siphons deposits away from local lenders.

The warning from community bank leaders is stark. More than 100 bankers have urged senators to tighten rules, citing the potential for yield-like incentives to pull $6.6 trillion from local lending. This isn't hypothetical. It's a direct threat to the core deposit base that funds small business loans and mortgages, the lifeblood of Main Street economies. The concern is that if a stablecoin issuer can offer returns that match or exceed those on savings accounts, it could trigger a massive, destabilizing outflow of capital from the traditional banking system.

This sets up a clear battlefield. On one side, the GENIUS Act provides a formal pathway for stablecoins to become a new payments rail, with pilots already underway like the Roughrider coin in North Dakota. On the other, the FDIC is actively working to implement the law, signaling a move toward a regulated, but still potentially disruptive, ecosystem. The core risk to traditional finance is not the existence of stablecoins, but the potential for them to be used as a substitute for bank deposits if the interest prohibition is circumvented or if new, unregulated forms emerge. The law attempts to draw a hard line, but the market's appetite for yield and the competitive pressure from fintechs mean the battle for the deposit base is far from over.

JPMorgan's Strategic Positioning

JPMorgan's approach to the stablecoin revolution is a masterclass in strategic hedging. The bank is navigating a landscape it both questions and must master. CEO Jamie Dimon's public stance captures this duality: he doesn't get the appeal of stablecoins and sees them as a niche alternative to traditional payments. Yet, he also can't afford to stay on the sidelines. This is the core of JPMorgan's calculus-a calculated, low-risk entry to maintain relevance and protect its dominant position in global finance.

The bank's first move is a controlled experiment. Last month, JPMorgan announced it will launch a more limited version of a stablecoin that only works for JPMorgan clients. This is not a bid to compete with USDT or USDC in the open market. It's a client-only "JPM Coin" designed to understand the technology, test its utility for institutional flows, and ensure the bank is not left behind as fintechs and other banks explore the space. Dimon frames this involvement as essential to staying ahead of "very smart" competitors trying to recreate bank accounts and payment systems.

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This positioning is part of a broader, multi-pronged strategy to protect its institutional role. JPMorgan is exploring tokenized deposits and other blockchain initiatives, aiming to digitize its own balance sheet and services. The goal is to offer the speed and efficiency of blockchain while retaining the trust and regulatory oversight that traditional banking provides. As Dimon noted, the alternative is ceding ground to fintechs that are trying to figure out a way to create bank accounts.

Viewed another way, JPMorgan is preparing for a regulated future where stablecoins are a fact of life. Its own research projects a $500 billion to $600 billion stablecoin supply by 2028, a figure that acknowledges growth but tempers the most bullish hype. The bank's playbook is clear: understand the technology, protect the deposit base from regulatory overreach, and use its scale to shape the rules of the game. It's an innovation posture built on risk management, ensuring that even as the market evolves, JPMorgan remains the indispensable intermediary.

Catalysts, Scenarios, and What to Watch

The path forward for stablecoins is not a straight line, but a series of tests that will validate or undermine the current thesis. Three key catalysts will determine whether the market remains a niche crypto utility or evolves into a systemic threat to traditional banking.

First, the FDIC's rulemaking on the GENIUS Act is the single most important regulatory catalyst. The law provides a framework, but the details of its implementation will define the competitive playing field. The critical question is whether the agency enforces the explicit prohibition on interest payments with teeth. A permissive interpretation could allow yield-like features to emerge, directly challenging the bank deposit base. A strict interpretation would reinforce the banking industry's defensive stance. Investors must watch for the final rules, expected in the coming months, to gauge the level of regulatory friction for private stablecoins.

Second, the market's own growth pattern will test JPMorgan's core view. The bank's projection of a $500 billion to $600 billion stablecoin supply by 2028 is grounded in the reality that demand is still a crypto-market story. The evidence shows this is driven by crypto trading and collateral needs, with derivatives venues adding billions in holdings. The key watchpoint is whether trading demand continues to outpace payments adoption. If the stablecoin float grows primarily through higher velocity in crypto markets, it validates the niche thesis and reduces the immediate threat to bank deposits. A shift toward payments could force a reassessment of the entire supply forecast.

Finally, the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) presents a potential game-changer. As noted in JPMorgan's analysis, CBDC efforts could offer regulated alternatives that compete with private stablecoins. The U.S. is still in early stages, but pilot programs in other major economies are advancing. A successful, widely adopted CBDC could capture the payments use case that private stablecoins are struggling to claim, while offering the safety and stability of a sovereign asset. This would reshape the competitive landscape, potentially neutralizing the yield threat from private issuers and providing a regulated alternative for cross-border flows.

The bottom line is that the stablecoin revolution is being shaped by a triad of forces: regulatory clarity, market fundamentals, and sovereign competition. The outcome will not be determined by hype, but by how these catalysts interact in the coming year.