JPMorgan Cuts Bullish's Target After Excluding IPO Windfall Revenue

JPMorgan & Co. has maintained a "Neutral" rating for Bullish (BLSH), a digital asset trading platform, but cut its 2026 price target to $45 from $46, reflecting adjustments to earnings estimates after excluding stablecoin promotion income tied to the company's $1.2 billion initial public offering (IPO) proceeds. The firm cited strong fourth-quarter trends as a potential catalyst for improved trading conditions, despite broader market volatility. Bullish reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.10 in Q3, exceeding Bloomberg consensus, while revenue of $77 million and adjusted EBITDA of $29 million outperformed expectations.

The revised price target implies a 23.3% upside from Bullish's recent closing price of $36.50, according to JPMorgan analysts. The firm trimmed its 2025 and 2026 earnings estimates to strip out high-margin stablecoin promotion income generated from IPO proceeds, which contributed approximately $6.2 million to Q3's subscription services and other (SS&O) revenue. Excluding this one-time item, adjusted EBITDA would have been closer to $22.4 million, analysts noted. JPMorgan now forecasts $12 million in stablecoin promotion revenue for Q4, annualizing to $37 million in 2027, but excludes these figures from its core valuation model.

The bank's assessment of Bullish comes amid broader market dynamics affecting crypto and traditional equities. For instance, JPMorgan analysts highlighted that tariff rollbacks on agricultural products could benefit food companies like Hershey, whose cocoa costs had been inflated by import duties. The firm estimated that the tariff relief could boost Hershey's 2026 earnings per share by over $1, potentially prompting higher investments in U.S. manufacturing. Similarly, JPMorgan analysts projected robust growth for Dell Technologies, driven by AI server demand, with revenue forecasts rising for the October and January quarters despite margin pressures.

In another move, JPMorgan participated in a $7.9 billion cross-border debt financing for Clayton Dubilier & Rice's (CD&R) acquisition of Sealed Air, the packaging company known for Bubble Wrap. The deal, backed by banks including BNP Paribas and UBS Group, underscores the firm's role in large-scale leveraged buyout transactions. CD&R will pay $42.15 per share for Sealed Air, valuing the company at $10.3 billion.

JPMorgan's analysts also emphasized the resilience of Bullish's core business, noting that higher volatility in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum could drive trading volumes. The firm pointed to the October launch of options trading and ongoing U.S. institutional onboarding following the New York BitLicense approval as positives for Bullish's outlookhttps://www.theblock.co/post/379845/jpmorgan-bullish-lowers-2026-target.

While maintaining a cautious stance on Bullish, JPMorgan's broader market analyses highlight its active role in assessing both crypto and traditional equities. The firm's ability to pivot between sectors-from AI-driven tech firms to food manufacturers and packaging giants-reflects its comprehensive approach to capital allocation in a volatile economic environment.