JPMorgan Cuts 2025 Oil Price Forecasts 12% on Weak Demand, OPEC+ Output

JPMorgan Chase has revised its oil price forecasts for the current and next year, citing weak demand and increased production from OPEC+.

The bank lowered its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast to $66 per barrel from $73, and its 2026 target to $58 per barrel from $61. For U.S. crude oil, the 2025 forecast was reduced to $62 per barrel from $69, and the 2026 forecast to $53 per barrel from $57.

On Monday, Brent crude oil futures were trading around $65 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil futures were around $61 per barrel.

JPMorgan currently expects global oil demand to increase by 800,000 barrels per day, with the average increase in the third quarter being only 300,000 barrels per day.

In a report, JPMorgan stated, "Higher output from the OPEC+ alliance indicates a change in its response mechanism, which, combined with weak demand, will result in a significant oversupply in the market and drive Brent crude oil prices below $60 per barrel by the end of the year."

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs also lowered its 2025 and 2026 price forecasts for Brent and U.S. crude oil, citing expectations of increased supply from OPEC+ and the potential for escalating trade conflicts to trigger a global economic recession, thereby suppressing demand.